HELL NO, WE WON'T GO, HELL NO, WE WON'T GO.

The chant of old man winter  "HELL NO I WON'T GO" as spring is trying to push it out of the valley.  He's putting up one hell of a fight though.  The number one rule of Alabama weather..."Don't rule anything out!"  Old man winter wants to give us a few more chances of snow before it completely disappears.

A cold air mass will begin to settle into the Southeast on Friday, and it will last through the weekend. Temperatures are expected to dip below freezing this weekend as far south as northern Florida. Freeze Warnings are in effect for much of Georgia through Friday morning, and additional Freeze Warnings are possible in this region as the weekend progresses.
~NOAA via weather.gov~

Although i will be updating Facebook before winter is completely gone, i believe this will be my last blog post concerning the 2012-2013 Winter Outlook.  Read below my thoughts on the next few days, my redneck 7 day, and my spring weather predictions.  Full Spring outlook blog coming soon!!

Redneck 7 day, with explanations below.
***PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT THESE ARE JUST MY OPINIONS AND PREDICTIONS...THE FORECAST FOR SNOW THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK IS ALL OVER THE BOARD, SOME SAY YES, SOME SAY NO, AND SOME SAY MAYBE...WE WILL SEE***

Thursday Night
Well tonight is almost over, i know, but I had to watch all the local 10pm news cast before i published this blog.  Wanted to make sure I got everyone's opinion before I gave yall mine.  Tonight is gonna be purdy cold, but with the cloud cover right now, i'm thinking that we won't get down below freezing like my 7 day says.  I believe the low will be around 36 tonight.  With a cold North wind at 9-11 MPH it will feel like 30.

Friday
Early Friday morning we might start out with a few flurries around, then by around 7am it will turn to all rain.  Not rain everywhere, but rain showers here and there.  As the cold north wind starts to pick up again and the temps start to drop around 4pm we will see the rain change over to all snow by dark. No accumulations.

Friday Night
Scattered snow showers and COLD north wind at about 10-15 MPH, we could see a light dusting of snow between 10pm and Midnight.

Saturday
Starting around 1am Saturday we will see heavy scattered snow showers.  A Dusting to 1/2 inch expected for most of the TN Valley by noon Saturday.  COLD north wind will cut through you like a knife.  Some lingering snow showers and flurry showers are possible throughout the afternoon and evening hours, but no more accumulations expected.

TAKE A LOOK AT MY BUDDY JASON SIMPSON'S SNOW EXPECTATIONS  FOR THE TN VALLEY. 

 I BACK THESE PREDICTIONS 100%

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL

412 PM CST THU FEB 28 2013

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-011000-

LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE...DECATUR...GUNTERSVILLE...SCOTTSBORO...

FORT PAYNE...CULLMAN...LYNCHBURG...FAYETTEVILLE...WINCHESTER

412 PM CST THU FEB 28 2013

...POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A SYSTEM CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WHILE QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN IN TERMS OF THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION

ACROSS SOUTHERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE FROM LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM A DUSTING TO ABOUT ONE HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHER TOTALS MORE LIKELY IN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOCATIONS ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COULD SEE SNOWFALL TOTALS CLOSER TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES BY SATURDAY MORNING.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM...AND POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.

Sunday
I don't expect any moisture to still be around Sunday, but i do expect the really cold wind to stick around throughout the morning hours and will only let the temps get to the 40's.  Stay warm out there.

Monday
A break from the moisture on Monday, the south winds will begin to enter the valley again and dry the air up a little, we will still be below average in temps, but not as cold as the weekend.  Cloudy and maybe a few peaks of sun, but not really.

Tuesday
Tuesday as the gulf moisture begins to arrive again we will see scattered rain showers all day on and off.  Going into Tuesday night the showers will get heavier as another upper level disturbance starts to combine with the gulf moisture.  Cold air will start to take over around midnight and possibly turn the rain to sleet.

Wednesday
Here is where it gets tricky again.  I believe by early Wednesday morning all moisture will be sleet mixing with snow and then all snow by the late morning hours.  This is still up in the air, but even some national forecasters are calling for a big snow event for the TN Valley and Atlanta area.  My opinion just based on the model data i see tonight...good chance for a few inches with this system as we will  have the gulf moisture in place to really feed the system.  This will most likely be our last hooray for old man winter. 

PLEASE CLICK ON THE LINKS BELOW AND TAKE A LOOK AT A FEW DIFFERENT OPINIONS CONCERNING THE SNOW FOR THIS WEEKEND.  THANKS TO ALL THE LOCAL GUYS FOR LETTING ME LINK YOUR BLOGS ON HERE.
Jason Simpson Flurrying on Friday
Ari Sarsalari Cold Weekend with Some Snow
Jeff Castle Saturday Snow Update
J.P. Dice, Birmingham News Weekend Snow Watch


Spring fever!!!
Thursday we will gradually start to see normal March temps come back to the valley.  It is going to be an absolutely gorgeous day Thursday.  The next few days may follow suit, with only some slight rain chances for the weekend, but wonderful temps and maybe even some 60's by Saturday.  We might have one more chance for below average temps around the 17th or so, but right now its not looking likely.  Spring is going to pop right over us for the remaining of the month of march.  I will be doing a Spring 2013 outlook blog sometime in the next week, so keep an eye out.   

As I say goodbye to Old Man Winter, I want to thank all of my readers and supporters for sticking by me as I learn the hardest things I've ever had to learn.  If your thinking of becoming a weather professional, don't start learning during a winter season in AL, it is impossible to get anything right.  I know my long range winter predictions were way off, but as was most of the professionals.  I wished we would of had just one good 3-6 inches of snow on the ground for a few days...but hey you can't get everything you wish for.  Number one rule of weather in Alabama....anything can happen!!!  Spring looks to be filled with lots of moisture, but there are some really good camping days ahead.  The first Redneck Camping weekend looks to be March 22nd, where I'm hoping temps will be around 69 and lows around 50.  Perfect camping weather.  See you in Spring for my camping forecast!!!


Stay tuned...
Laura

REDNECK 7 DAY 2.25.13

NEW REDNECK 7 DAY. 

Monday we will have some really gusty winds throughout the day.  WIND ADVISORY for the majority of the TN Valley until 6AM Tuesday.  Some scattered showers possible throughout the day.  Heavy rain will be widespread throughout the valley by the evening hours.  Rain should be gone by mid day on Tuesday.  I will be hourly updating FB if the weather turns severe, but nothing severe expected at this time.  We still have some snow chances for Thursday, but better snow chances for the weekend (not on the 7 day yet)  and a couple of chances the first week of March.  The cold temps are going to stick around for a while after mid week, so don't expect spring anytime soon.  I will update the blog concerning our snow chances within the next two days. 

Remember to click on this link... Laura's Forecast ...which will take you to Laura's Forecast on Facebook.  Please like my page.  I need 4 more likes to get the advance features on my page.  Plus I give more updates on FB than i do the blog.

Stay tuned...
Laura

YES, NO, MAYBE SO...HELL I DON'T KNOW!!

"Disclaimer...i don't claim to be a real weather professional, i don't claim to be right either.  These are my feelings and predictions based on a combination of the local, national, and other forecasters and my experience as a
 Alabama Redneck Weather Nerd."

IS WINTER OVER???

THIS TIME LAST WEEK, I WOULD OF ANSWERED THAT QUESTION LIKE THIS

"Spring starts the first week of March"  

NOW WITH NEW MODEL DATA AND EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF SNOW FALL IN THE CENTRAL U.S.  HERE IS MY NEW ANSWER 

"Spring starts the end of March or beginning of April, more winter on the way"

Yes that's right, i said it...more winter is on the way.  The way things are looking right now, i believe the worst of winter just might be around the corner for us. But like always, and as this blog post title says...nothing is for sure, and future predictions are changing every day.  I have predicted several rounds of wintery precip in the past two months, with much disappointment it would change as time grew closer.  I admit my predictions have been off somewhat...but every time I've predicted snow...we did get it...just not as much as long range predictions and models told me.  So at the risk of being wrong again...i'm gonna give you more predictions concerning the future.  Read through this post to get my short range and long range predictions for the next few weeks.

REDNECK 7 DAY
First let me give you my predictions for the next 7 days...i will explain in more detail after this picture...

FRIDAY
Friday starts off on the wet side, with a few early morning thunderstorms possible as the mositure exits the valley.  Some models actually suggest a few lingering showers developing around the noon hour, but no heavy rain expected aftter around 10am.  Highs around 60 with a low Friday night of 40.
SATURDAY
All the rain from Friday makes for a good mudding day on Saturday.  If we have a few lingering showers develop Friday around the noon hour, a few of those showers might develop Saturday morning, but only a 10% chance of this happening.  The High will be around 59/60 with a low Saturday night of 35.
SUNDAY
Sunday is looking like is gonna be a pretty day.  Perfect temps between 60/61 in the afternoon for some early season fishing.  Plenty of sun in the sky and a low Sunday night of only 41.  Rain might start to develop Sunday night into Monday, but for now it looks like it will wait till Monday.
MONDAY
You won't be able to escape the wet weather Monday around lunch time.  I believe we might even see some strong to severe thunderstorms out of this system, but its too early to tell.  A cold mass of air will make its way to us Monday night bringing the temps from low 60's down to the mid-low 30's.  As this happens the warmer air will come up from the gulf early Monday bringing in the moisture and possible storms.  Please stay weather aware on Monday.
TUESDAY
Tuesday will be a partly cloudy day with some lingering moisture from the night before.  A slight north wind will make it feel colder than it is.  Highs around 52 with Tuesday night pretty and clear around 32.
WEDNESDAY
Wednesday will start off clear and sunny but with more of a north wind making it much colder.  The high will be only around 50 as a cold air mass makes it all the way to south Alabama.  Wednesday night the temps will drop to around 29 as a possible round of moisture will start to develop to our west bringing in rain before it changes over to all winter pricip by Thursday morning. 
THURSDAY
Thursday is up in the air.  The ECM model and GFS models are showing a lot of moisture developing to our west as the cold air reaches south AL.  The only thing I'm watching is the pressure in the air and whether or not the lower air will be cold enough for winter pricip.  If the cold air sets up right, we could see a good few inches of snow by thursday evening.  If the air changes (like it has in the past few weeks) then we could see only a few good rounds of flurries. I'm not expecting the high Thursday to get past 40, but we could very well remain around the freezing mark all day.  Only time will tell.  Here are some future prediction model images for Thursday.  More long range predictions will follow these images...

IGNORE THE DATES IN THE FOLLOWING TWO PICS, SHOULD SAY FEB 28TH.

Keep this in mind...
The ECM has been right 90% of the time 3 days in advance and right 75% of the time up to 5 days in advance.  The GFS has been right 80% of the time 3 days in advance and right 49% of the time up to 5 days in advance.  This is 7 days in advance and these models usually don't agree this far out.  Something to think about.

As i tell you many many times, none of this is easy to predict.  These models change every day.  But as Grandma says.... "It always snows on the butter cups".  Anything is possible.

Beyond the 7 day
As you may have noticed, the plains and the northeast have been blasted with snow the last month.  Long range predictions from late fall 2012 might actually become true.  I was so disappointed as this winter started...everyone...I mean every major government or network forecaster and scientist predicted a really cold and very snowy winter for us during late Dec, Jan, and Feb.  We did spend a few below average cold days in January.  A really good upper level low dumped some good snow throughout some of the valley.  But nothing big like i expected.  Now I believe we just might see our really cold really snowy winter to close out this season.

Plenty of precip is on the way for the next 10-14 days.  The Jetstream has aligned just perfectly.  A type of blocking effect has begain to form in the north east and north west causing a huge mass of cold air to dip down over us...to stay for a while.  Take a look at the new NOAA 14 day outlook for above vs below average temps.

The TN Valley is in the 80% shaded dark blue area saying we will have below average temps in the next 14 days.  If the moisture stays and the temps stay cool, we just might see that late snow ivent.

Click on the link below to read this good article arguing with my predictions by Jason Simpson of WHNT.
Rumors of Winter Storms

SPRING???

Although i believe the next 14 days to be below normal temps and above normal precip...i believe we will skip right into the good ole Tornado Season of Alabama...Spring!!  By the end of March, 3rd-4th week, we will see spring like conditions and spring like storms.  But before then we will see a few more ups and downs in the temp department that last for more than 2 days at a time.  Above average moisture, and above average north wind.  We still have a few more weeks of winter to go.  We have several possibility's for good systems for snow, good systems for severe storms, and good systems for damaging wind to pull threw over the next 30 days.  A very active weather patter ahead to slide us right into spring.  I want a good snow but can't wait to give yall my first camping forecast...those days are coming...don't worry. 

PLEASE READ THE UPDATES I PUT ON FACEBOOK CONCERNING THESE LONG RANGE PREDICTIONS.  PLEASE READ THE BLOG ABOVE BY JASON SIMPSON FOR A DIFFERENT OPINION.  ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!

STAY TUNED.....

LAURA