YES, NO, MAYBE SO...HELL I DON'T KNOW!!

"Disclaimer...i don't claim to be a real weather professional, i don't claim to be right either.  These are my feelings and predictions based on a combination of the local, national, and other forecasters and my experience as a
 Alabama Redneck Weather Nerd."

IS WINTER OVER???

THIS TIME LAST WEEK, I WOULD OF ANSWERED THAT QUESTION LIKE THIS

"Spring starts the first week of March"  

NOW WITH NEW MODEL DATA AND EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF SNOW FALL IN THE CENTRAL U.S.  HERE IS MY NEW ANSWER 

"Spring starts the end of March or beginning of April, more winter on the way"

Yes that's right, i said it...more winter is on the way.  The way things are looking right now, i believe the worst of winter just might be around the corner for us. But like always, and as this blog post title says...nothing is for sure, and future predictions are changing every day.  I have predicted several rounds of wintery precip in the past two months, with much disappointment it would change as time grew closer.  I admit my predictions have been off somewhat...but every time I've predicted snow...we did get it...just not as much as long range predictions and models told me.  So at the risk of being wrong again...i'm gonna give you more predictions concerning the future.  Read through this post to get my short range and long range predictions for the next few weeks.

REDNECK 7 DAY
First let me give you my predictions for the next 7 days...i will explain in more detail after this picture...

FRIDAY
Friday starts off on the wet side, with a few early morning thunderstorms possible as the mositure exits the valley.  Some models actually suggest a few lingering showers developing around the noon hour, but no heavy rain expected aftter around 10am.  Highs around 60 with a low Friday night of 40.
SATURDAY
All the rain from Friday makes for a good mudding day on Saturday.  If we have a few lingering showers develop Friday around the noon hour, a few of those showers might develop Saturday morning, but only a 10% chance of this happening.  The High will be around 59/60 with a low Saturday night of 35.
SUNDAY
Sunday is looking like is gonna be a pretty day.  Perfect temps between 60/61 in the afternoon for some early season fishing.  Plenty of sun in the sky and a low Sunday night of only 41.  Rain might start to develop Sunday night into Monday, but for now it looks like it will wait till Monday.
MONDAY
You won't be able to escape the wet weather Monday around lunch time.  I believe we might even see some strong to severe thunderstorms out of this system, but its too early to tell.  A cold mass of air will make its way to us Monday night bringing the temps from low 60's down to the mid-low 30's.  As this happens the warmer air will come up from the gulf early Monday bringing in the moisture and possible storms.  Please stay weather aware on Monday.
TUESDAY
Tuesday will be a partly cloudy day with some lingering moisture from the night before.  A slight north wind will make it feel colder than it is.  Highs around 52 with Tuesday night pretty and clear around 32.
WEDNESDAY
Wednesday will start off clear and sunny but with more of a north wind making it much colder.  The high will be only around 50 as a cold air mass makes it all the way to south Alabama.  Wednesday night the temps will drop to around 29 as a possible round of moisture will start to develop to our west bringing in rain before it changes over to all winter pricip by Thursday morning. 
THURSDAY
Thursday is up in the air.  The ECM model and GFS models are showing a lot of moisture developing to our west as the cold air reaches south AL.  The only thing I'm watching is the pressure in the air and whether or not the lower air will be cold enough for winter pricip.  If the cold air sets up right, we could see a good few inches of snow by thursday evening.  If the air changes (like it has in the past few weeks) then we could see only a few good rounds of flurries. I'm not expecting the high Thursday to get past 40, but we could very well remain around the freezing mark all day.  Only time will tell.  Here are some future prediction model images for Thursday.  More long range predictions will follow these images...

IGNORE THE DATES IN THE FOLLOWING TWO PICS, SHOULD SAY FEB 28TH.

Keep this in mind...
The ECM has been right 90% of the time 3 days in advance and right 75% of the time up to 5 days in advance.  The GFS has been right 80% of the time 3 days in advance and right 49% of the time up to 5 days in advance.  This is 7 days in advance and these models usually don't agree this far out.  Something to think about.

As i tell you many many times, none of this is easy to predict.  These models change every day.  But as Grandma says.... "It always snows on the butter cups".  Anything is possible.

Beyond the 7 day
As you may have noticed, the plains and the northeast have been blasted with snow the last month.  Long range predictions from late fall 2012 might actually become true.  I was so disappointed as this winter started...everyone...I mean every major government or network forecaster and scientist predicted a really cold and very snowy winter for us during late Dec, Jan, and Feb.  We did spend a few below average cold days in January.  A really good upper level low dumped some good snow throughout some of the valley.  But nothing big like i expected.  Now I believe we just might see our really cold really snowy winter to close out this season.

Plenty of precip is on the way for the next 10-14 days.  The Jetstream has aligned just perfectly.  A type of blocking effect has begain to form in the north east and north west causing a huge mass of cold air to dip down over us...to stay for a while.  Take a look at the new NOAA 14 day outlook for above vs below average temps.

The TN Valley is in the 80% shaded dark blue area saying we will have below average temps in the next 14 days.  If the moisture stays and the temps stay cool, we just might see that late snow ivent.

Click on the link below to read this good article arguing with my predictions by Jason Simpson of WHNT.
Rumors of Winter Storms

SPRING???

Although i believe the next 14 days to be below normal temps and above normal precip...i believe we will skip right into the good ole Tornado Season of Alabama...Spring!!  By the end of March, 3rd-4th week, we will see spring like conditions and spring like storms.  But before then we will see a few more ups and downs in the temp department that last for more than 2 days at a time.  Above average moisture, and above average north wind.  We still have a few more weeks of winter to go.  We have several possibility's for good systems for snow, good systems for severe storms, and good systems for damaging wind to pull threw over the next 30 days.  A very active weather patter ahead to slide us right into spring.  I want a good snow but can't wait to give yall my first camping forecast...those days are coming...don't worry. 

PLEASE READ THE UPDATES I PUT ON FACEBOOK CONCERNING THESE LONG RANGE PREDICTIONS.  PLEASE READ THE BLOG ABOVE BY JASON SIMPSON FOR A DIFFERENT OPINION.  ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!

STAY TUNED.....

LAURA