COLD, HOT, COLD, HOT...MOTHER NATURE MENOPAUSE

It looks like the worst of winter is still on its way and very possible in the next few weeks, however some days you will think its spring and others will feel very much like winter as mother nature has a month of menopause.  In other words, models are pointing to more winter precip in the coming days, but also pointing to ups and downs as far as temperature throughout most of the February month.  Moisture, Sun, Snow, Warm, Cold, and Freezing days are ahead of us for our last month of the meteorological winter.  Read through as I explain my predictions for the next week and through the end of February.....

TONIGHT
Tonight into the morning hours we have a possibility of seeing some freezing drizzle in the area as a cold front moves through the valley.  Right now temps are holding strong in the mid 40's and low 50's but as we go through the night they will begin to drop to the freezing mark.  By 7am tomorrow morning temps will be around 30 for an average.  If any moisture comes in over night, it will most likely be frozen, but no problems expected.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY

Check out NOAA's forecast for the next few days....

 

I don't agree completely with the temps and precip chances above, as i believe Thursday is defiantly going to be a cold one with highs in the mid 30's across the valley.  I would be surprised if anyone reaches 39 Thursday.  By 7pm Thursday night the average temp will be 26 around the valley, which brings the concern for frozen precip Thursday night into Friday morning.  Around 11:30 Thursday night a bit of moisture from the south west will begin to push through the valley.  Scattered showers possible along the western parts of the valley and by 3am frozen rain and/or sleet is going to become possible starting in the west of the valley and slowly moving across to the east.  Between 3am and 11am Friday most parts of the valley will see a few hours of freezing rain before the moisture moves out.  Temps by 6am Friday will only be in the 30's around the valley and only warming up to around 32 by the noon hours.  The wind will be NE at 5-15mph...a very very cold wind.  A winter storm watch has been issued for north western parts of GA and south eastern parts of TN.  We shouldn't have any travel issues, but anything is possible with this arctic air mass.

My pinpoint predictions indicate where i think most of the heaviest mositure will be from 9am to noon Friday.

The NAM model for Friday at noon shows a little less than I'm predicting.  Recent model trends and patterns show a slight under forecasting.  Which means the below model is a little light compared to what it is actually going to be at that time.  Once again, as we have learned, arctic air mass is very hard to predict on forecast guidance models.

There is a slight possibility of some ice glaceing around the valley Friday, but nothing major expected.  Doppler Dale shows his expected accumulations below...

THE WEEKEND
Friday night temps will remain in the upper 20's for lows as the cold air sticks around into Saturday.  Saturday highs are not expected to get above 39 but very Sunny.  With the moisture from Friday, i just might have to take my truck to the mud fields for some fun in the sun.  As we go into Sunday morning the low is going to be around 32.  We will quickly see a slight warm up as a warm front moves through the valley Sunday afternoon.  High for Sunday expected to be around 47 with a mostly cloudy sky and a slight chance of a shower or two into the evening hours.  Nothing major expected at this time, but as wee go through the next 48 hours watching the arctic air mass, things might change for the weekend...i will keep you posted if they do.

NEXT WEEK
I believe Monday and Tuesday will be mostly dry with a slight chance of a shower Tuesday evening.  The temps will be in the upper 30's at night and mid 50's during the day.  As a warm front moves through Tuesday evening we could actually see temps in the low 60's. (mother nature menopause)  Wednesday the chance for rain and possible thunderstorms increases as we warm up to the mid 60's and another cold front moves through late Wednesday night into Thursday.  Thursday i suspect a round of strong thunderstorms in the morning as the cold front moves through the valley.  I'm also watching another major chance of winter weather Thursday night into Friday morning of next week.  Check out the below GFS model guidance for Thursday at 6pm.

You see the bold black circle above...everything within that circle is above the thickness line and on the north side of the cold air....everything circled is frozen precip.  This has raised a concern for some local forecasters and me as well.  I suspect this might just be and ice/snow storm with thunder snow possible.  I will be keeping an eye on this throughout the weekend and early next week.  I will give you more updates as i get them.

FEBRUARY
The long range models are showing a definite trend towards more below average days in February.   We will however deal with mother natures menopause once again through the month, but with more colder days than we saw in January.

As we go through the first two weeks of Feruary I'm seeing more moisture opertunities and more winter weather.  I will be keeping a close eye on the long range models to keep you updated.  However there is some good news in our future....I believe spring will show its head to us as early as the first few days of March.  We just need to hang in there through this awful cold month we have ahead.

I will be giving you more updates on my Facebook page  Laura's Forecast throughout the next few days concerning the Friday's threat of ice and next weeks threat of storms and snow. 

Stay tuned......
Laura