COLD, HOT, COLD, HOT...MOTHER NATURE MENOPAUSE

It looks like the worst of winter is still on its way and very possible in the next few weeks, however some days you will think its spring and others will feel very much like winter as mother nature has a month of menopause.  In other words, models are pointing to more winter precip in the coming days, but also pointing to ups and downs as far as temperature throughout most of the February month.  Moisture, Sun, Snow, Warm, Cold, and Freezing days are ahead of us for our last month of the meteorological winter.  Read through as I explain my predictions for the next week and through the end of February.....

TONIGHT
Tonight into the morning hours we have a possibility of seeing some freezing drizzle in the area as a cold front moves through the valley.  Right now temps are holding strong in the mid 40's and low 50's but as we go through the night they will begin to drop to the freezing mark.  By 7am tomorrow morning temps will be around 30 for an average.  If any moisture comes in over night, it will most likely be frozen, but no problems expected.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY

Check out NOAA's forecast for the next few days....

 

I don't agree completely with the temps and precip chances above, as i believe Thursday is defiantly going to be a cold one with highs in the mid 30's across the valley.  I would be surprised if anyone reaches 39 Thursday.  By 7pm Thursday night the average temp will be 26 around the valley, which brings the concern for frozen precip Thursday night into Friday morning.  Around 11:30 Thursday night a bit of moisture from the south west will begin to push through the valley.  Scattered showers possible along the western parts of the valley and by 3am frozen rain and/or sleet is going to become possible starting in the west of the valley and slowly moving across to the east.  Between 3am and 11am Friday most parts of the valley will see a few hours of freezing rain before the moisture moves out.  Temps by 6am Friday will only be in the 30's around the valley and only warming up to around 32 by the noon hours.  The wind will be NE at 5-15mph...a very very cold wind.  A winter storm watch has been issued for north western parts of GA and south eastern parts of TN.  We shouldn't have any travel issues, but anything is possible with this arctic air mass.

My pinpoint predictions indicate where i think most of the heaviest mositure will be from 9am to noon Friday.

The NAM model for Friday at noon shows a little less than I'm predicting.  Recent model trends and patterns show a slight under forecasting.  Which means the below model is a little light compared to what it is actually going to be at that time.  Once again, as we have learned, arctic air mass is very hard to predict on forecast guidance models.

There is a slight possibility of some ice glaceing around the valley Friday, but nothing major expected.  Doppler Dale shows his expected accumulations below...

THE WEEKEND
Friday night temps will remain in the upper 20's for lows as the cold air sticks around into Saturday.  Saturday highs are not expected to get above 39 but very Sunny.  With the moisture from Friday, i just might have to take my truck to the mud fields for some fun in the sun.  As we go into Sunday morning the low is going to be around 32.  We will quickly see a slight warm up as a warm front moves through the valley Sunday afternoon.  High for Sunday expected to be around 47 with a mostly cloudy sky and a slight chance of a shower or two into the evening hours.  Nothing major expected at this time, but as wee go through the next 48 hours watching the arctic air mass, things might change for the weekend...i will keep you posted if they do.

NEXT WEEK
I believe Monday and Tuesday will be mostly dry with a slight chance of a shower Tuesday evening.  The temps will be in the upper 30's at night and mid 50's during the day.  As a warm front moves through Tuesday evening we could actually see temps in the low 60's. (mother nature menopause)  Wednesday the chance for rain and possible thunderstorms increases as we warm up to the mid 60's and another cold front moves through late Wednesday night into Thursday.  Thursday i suspect a round of strong thunderstorms in the morning as the cold front moves through the valley.  I'm also watching another major chance of winter weather Thursday night into Friday morning of next week.  Check out the below GFS model guidance for Thursday at 6pm.

You see the bold black circle above...everything within that circle is above the thickness line and on the north side of the cold air....everything circled is frozen precip.  This has raised a concern for some local forecasters and me as well.  I suspect this might just be and ice/snow storm with thunder snow possible.  I will be keeping an eye on this throughout the weekend and early next week.  I will give you more updates as i get them.

FEBRUARY
The long range models are showing a definite trend towards more below average days in February.   We will however deal with mother natures menopause once again through the month, but with more colder days than we saw in January.

As we go through the first two weeks of Feruary I'm seeing more moisture opertunities and more winter weather.  I will be keeping a close eye on the long range models to keep you updated.  However there is some good news in our future....I believe spring will show its head to us as early as the first few days of March.  We just need to hang in there through this awful cold month we have ahead.

I will be giving you more updates on my Facebook page  Laura's Forecast throughout the next few days concerning the Friday's threat of ice and next weeks threat of storms and snow. 

Stay tuned......
Laura

DON'T PANIC!!...ITS JUST WINTER!

Don't panic everyone, i know we haven't been used to these temps and winter weather, but get used to it.  Looks like old man winter is going to stay around for a while.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY and FLOOD WARNINGS

A winter weather advisory is in effect for parts of the TN Valley.  Ice is beginning to form on trees and metallic surfaces all over the western part of the valley.  The good news is that the rain is starting to weaken a bit as the temps are remaining just above or around freezing.  There is a low boundary of arctic air right above the surface which is causing the ice to form.  This is the reason for the winter weather advisory.  With this low boundary of really cold air, it causes the falling rain to freeze right at the surface.  The only problems i see with this ice is the possibility of some minor power outages because of ice on lines, and the issue of black ice.  There have been a few power outages in the area, but nothing serious.  Ice has been reported on some bridges and roads in the west but as long as you are careful and pay attention to what your doing when driving, you shouldn't have major travel issues.  Just be careful out there and stay calm.  One of the major problems with forecasting winter weather in the TN Valley is that people panic and cause accidents.  Don't panic, there is no need to run out for milk and bread, we aren't gonna get snowed in.  Just be cautious.  Any threat of Ice tonight, will be gone tomorrow by 9am.  Check out this map of counties including the advisory from WAFF.
Flooding is more of an issue in the TN Valley today.  The paint rock river and flint river are already covering some roads and making them  not passable.  Rain will continue for the next few days, which is a concern of mine.  Please be extra careful traveling around any type of creeks or rivers.  Also some flooding could occur around drainage ditches and street gutters.  So please be careful and DO not try to pass water covered roads unless absolutely necessary. 

Rain will continue on and off Tonight, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Early morning Thursday.  Temps will remain around the low to mid 40's for highs and mid 30's for lows.

SNOW THURSDAY??? 

Yes this is a possibility.  I have read numerous blogs today by our local forecasters where the word "accumulations" were mentioned.  As you know, none of them have put this in the forecast yet, as they are waiting to see if the models remain constant enough going into the rest of the week.  As you know I have been watching the potential for this snow system to develop over the last few days, here are my thoughts on the subject...
A upper-level low could form right to our south west Wednesday into Thursday. The track and timing of this upper low is very critical.  If it moves directly overhead, which is what the models are showing right now, dynamic cooling could cause wintry precipitation in the form of snow even if the temperatures are above freezing.  Models are hinting at a couple of inches of wet snow accumulations.  I believe this is very much possible Thursday afternoon.  But once again, it is really too far out to but this on any forecast.  Cold air masses and upper lows are very hard to predict more than 2-3 days in advance, as the models sometimes miss read these.  I will be watching it more closely the next few days and let you know if this is in fact going to happen. The details will become clearer over the next 24-36 hours as I see if the models maintain consistency.  Despite this upper level low concern, we should remain constiant with mid to high 40 temps and lows in the 30's going into the weekend.

Check out the NAM guidance future predictions.  This is a categorial model which is made up of other models different factors that produce falling moisture.  They have changed a little in the last few hours but not by much.  It all depends on the upper level low and how far east and south it will strengthen. 

THIS WEEKEND

All signs are pointing to this weekend being the sunniest weekend we have had in a while.  Temperature highs should remain in the upper 40's or low 50's with lows in the 30's.

NEXT WEEK

I am still following the cold air mass i was talking about in my last blog.  Some days next week we might not even get out of the 30's.  The next few days are critical when it comes to watching this cold air mass.  If we get too cold next week, we will be completely dry.  If we stay just at freezing (which is what models are pointing to now) then we will see lots of moisture with are greatest possibility of snow so far.  I will also be watching next week and keep you posted as I see updates in the models.

Stay tuned...
Laura

THE RAIN BRINGS WINTER BACK

Good ole mother nature fooled us again as Huntsville broke the record high today of 71 reaching 72 in the metro area.  Hot and mugging all day but no its not spring time and yes here comes the winter again.

Sunday-Tuesday...

This season has been one of the hardest in weather history to predict, but the next few days are pretty easy to predict for any meteorologist or forecaster.  Rain and more rain.  The gulf moisture coming up from the south and cold front coming from the west will collide and thicken the air bringing a crap load of rain to the valley in the next few days.  Really heavy rainfall is expected from Sunday through Tuesday.  A few strong storms capable of gusty winds are also possible.  But the main threat for the next few days will be very heavy rainfall and flooding.  To all my friends and family around the Flint, river flooding is also possible in the next few days, so be prepared.  Rainfall totals in the area are expected to reach 3-5 inches by the time the rain is gone Tuesday evening.  As the cold front starts to move through tomorrow temps will be in the mid-high 60's and fall to the mid-high 30's by early Monday morning.  Temps are expected to stay above the freezing mark, but could change and there for some frozen precip might be possible Monday into Tuesday, but only a 14% probability of the temps dropping below freezing.  The highs for Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid to low 40's.  BACK TO WINTER!!

UPDATE:  As I'm writing this blog I double checked the forecast guidance system and it now appears that the rain may stick around through Wednesday.  Instead of re-writing the above paragraph i decided just to update you with the current model image below.  This is the GFS prediction for Wed mid day.  As you can see, the rain is still around.

Wednesday and beyond....

Now for the more tricky forecasting.  A week ago i would of told you that we would be into the teens by mid week this week, but now its looking that we won't get that cold just yet.  Over the next few weeks I expect for us to see a lot of old man winter.  Plenty of moisture coming up from the gulf with the arctic jet stream settling right over our heads.  A combination that means WINTER.   After Wed I belive we will have a break in the moisture for a few days, but will quickly return by the weekend.  We should have nothing but average winter temps from Wed through Sunday.  Highs in the mid to high 40's and lows in the mid to high 30's.  After next Sunday is when the true test of forecasting comes in to play.  The long range models are all showing one thing in common...cold air.  Take a look at the image below....

I know you don't really understand what the model image above means...let me explain it simple...  The black line that's coming from the north west and Canada and makes its way down to the southeast then back up to the northeast...well that's the Arctic air boundary.  As you see, i circled our area on the map, clearly showing the arctic air as far south as Montgomery.  Keep in mind that these are high altitude temps and the map is showing 14 degrees right over the TN valley for Tuesday the 22nd.  No, don't worry, it won't get that cold at ground level, this is what the temps will look like in the clouds.  Which from my understanding means our highs will be in the mid 30's on the ground.  No matter who you are, that is some really freaking cold temps.  And looking even further ahead on this model, it shows this arctic jet stream will stick around just like this through the beginning of Feb.  I'm not even going to attempt to forecast the moisture this far out, as it is nearly impossible to do with the arctic air.  But with what other short term models are showing me, we will have no shortage of moisture for the next two weeks.  Temps in the 30's and plentiful moisture, means one thing....SNOW.  Yes i said the S word again.  I know y'all are tired of me saying this word, but you just don't know how many snow events have come so close to us in the past month.  Once again, its all about the timing, and i honestly believe the timing is going to fall right into place for us very soon.  So many things are lining up just perfect for us to have a great snow event in the next few weeks.  Now, please keep in mind, no local meteorologist will even mention the word snow unless it is on the short term forecast models.  Weather professionals in our area don't like to forecast for snow without being absolutely sure its going to happen.  There is two much panic in our area to even think of the word snow without all the milk and bread being gone within the hour in every grocery store...that's Alabamians for you.  :-)  But rest assured...i surely don't mind mentioning any thought of snow.  I will be watching the short term models over the next few days to see if any moisture develops over us at the same time as the arctic air. 

To sum things up...  My long term predictions for the next few weeks are very simple...cold air, and lots of moisture.  We are defiantly going to see a lot of Winter for the rest of the month.  Stock up on your firewood and be prepared to turn those heaters back on.  I am watching a system on the short range models for next weekend, i will keep you posted...Time for winter again....stay tuned....

Laura

HAPPY RAINY NEW YEAR!!!!

HAPPY 2013!!

Rain will continue throughout the first day of the new year.  Here is a current image of rain over the TN Valley...

Temps will stay around the upper 40's and maybe even brake into the lower 50's today.  Good day to clean up all those inside Christmas decorations and put up the tree.  The rain will start to move out of our area tonight, with a few possible lingering rain showers in the early morning.

THE REST OF THE WEEK

The system I've been watching on the NAM guidance system for the past week, has completed changed and will NOT effect the valley like previously forecast.   The northern boundary I was talking about, which would of made the system stall over us to bring plentiful snow, is now predicted to move more southward, causing a block to the moisture.  Some rain for southern AL is expected WED-THURS, but nothing for us.  This system was coming together perfectly for snow for us, like a great game of chess, the pieces were all aligned, then boom, one piece moved and the whole forecast changes.  Like I've been saying all along...TIMING is everything.  However, any moisture we do see WED-THURS will be in frozen form, maybe a few passing flurries like we have had in the past week, but i'm not forecasting for any moisture at all.

I've also noticed a few more changes in the NAM guidance prediction for the next few days.  We will start to see a calming trend for the remainder of the week.  Some really beautiful sunny days are coming.  The clouds will start to move out of the Valley on Thursday, making way for some cold but gorgeous outside days for the weekend.  New Redneck 7 Day says it all....

I am tracking another possible storm or snow maker to move across the valley the middle of next week, so please get out and enjoy the beautiful weather the rest of this week.  More details to come...stay tuned....

Laura