DON'T PANIC!!...ITS JUST WINTER!

Don't panic everyone, i know we haven't been used to these temps and winter weather, but get used to it.  Looks like old man winter is going to stay around for a while.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY and FLOOD WARNINGS

A winter weather advisory is in effect for parts of the TN Valley.  Ice is beginning to form on trees and metallic surfaces all over the western part of the valley.  The good news is that the rain is starting to weaken a bit as the temps are remaining just above or around freezing.  There is a low boundary of arctic air right above the surface which is causing the ice to form.  This is the reason for the winter weather advisory.  With this low boundary of really cold air, it causes the falling rain to freeze right at the surface.  The only problems i see with this ice is the possibility of some minor power outages because of ice on lines, and the issue of black ice.  There have been a few power outages in the area, but nothing serious.  Ice has been reported on some bridges and roads in the west but as long as you are careful and pay attention to what your doing when driving, you shouldn't have major travel issues.  Just be careful out there and stay calm.  One of the major problems with forecasting winter weather in the TN Valley is that people panic and cause accidents.  Don't panic, there is no need to run out for milk and bread, we aren't gonna get snowed in.  Just be cautious.  Any threat of Ice tonight, will be gone tomorrow by 9am.  Check out this map of counties including the advisory from WAFF.
Flooding is more of an issue in the TN Valley today.  The paint rock river and flint river are already covering some roads and making them  not passable.  Rain will continue for the next few days, which is a concern of mine.  Please be extra careful traveling around any type of creeks or rivers.  Also some flooding could occur around drainage ditches and street gutters.  So please be careful and DO not try to pass water covered roads unless absolutely necessary. 

Rain will continue on and off Tonight, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Early morning Thursday.  Temps will remain around the low to mid 40's for highs and mid 30's for lows.

SNOW THURSDAY??? 

Yes this is a possibility.  I have read numerous blogs today by our local forecasters where the word "accumulations" were mentioned.  As you know, none of them have put this in the forecast yet, as they are waiting to see if the models remain constant enough going into the rest of the week.  As you know I have been watching the potential for this snow system to develop over the last few days, here are my thoughts on the subject...
A upper-level low could form right to our south west Wednesday into Thursday. The track and timing of this upper low is very critical.  If it moves directly overhead, which is what the models are showing right now, dynamic cooling could cause wintry precipitation in the form of snow even if the temperatures are above freezing.  Models are hinting at a couple of inches of wet snow accumulations.  I believe this is very much possible Thursday afternoon.  But once again, it is really too far out to but this on any forecast.  Cold air masses and upper lows are very hard to predict more than 2-3 days in advance, as the models sometimes miss read these.  I will be watching it more closely the next few days and let you know if this is in fact going to happen. The details will become clearer over the next 24-36 hours as I see if the models maintain consistency.  Despite this upper level low concern, we should remain constiant with mid to high 40 temps and lows in the 30's going into the weekend.

Check out the NAM guidance future predictions.  This is a categorial model which is made up of other models different factors that produce falling moisture.  They have changed a little in the last few hours but not by much.  It all depends on the upper level low and how far east and south it will strengthen. 

THIS WEEKEND

All signs are pointing to this weekend being the sunniest weekend we have had in a while.  Temperature highs should remain in the upper 40's or low 50's with lows in the 30's.

NEXT WEEK

I am still following the cold air mass i was talking about in my last blog.  Some days next week we might not even get out of the 30's.  The next few days are critical when it comes to watching this cold air mass.  If we get too cold next week, we will be completely dry.  If we stay just at freezing (which is what models are pointing to now) then we will see lots of moisture with are greatest possibility of snow so far.  I will also be watching next week and keep you posted as I see updates in the models.

Stay tuned...
Laura