Sunday-Tuesday...
This season has been one of the hardest in weather history to predict, but the next few days are pretty easy to predict for any meteorologist or forecaster. Rain and more rain. The gulf moisture coming up from the south and cold front coming from the west will collide and thicken the air bringing a crap load of rain to the valley in the next few days. Really heavy rainfall is expected from Sunday through Tuesday. A few strong storms capable of gusty winds are also possible. But the main threat for the next few days will be very heavy rainfall and flooding. To all my friends and family around the Flint, river flooding is also possible in the next few days, so be prepared. Rainfall totals in the area are expected to reach 3-5 inches by the time the rain is gone Tuesday evening. As the cold front starts to move through tomorrow temps will be in the mid-high 60's and fall to the mid-high 30's by early Monday morning. Temps are expected to stay above the freezing mark, but could change and there for some frozen precip might be possible Monday into Tuesday, but only a 14% probability of the temps dropping below freezing. The highs for Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid to low 40's. BACK TO WINTER!!
UPDATE: As I'm writing this blog I double checked the forecast guidance system and it now appears that the rain may stick around through Wednesday. Instead of re-writing the above paragraph i decided just to update you with the current model image below. This is the GFS prediction for Wed mid day. As you can see, the rain is still around.
Wednesday and beyond....
Now for the more tricky forecasting. A week ago i would of told you that we would be into the teens by mid week this week, but now its looking that we won't get that cold just yet. Over the next few weeks I expect for us to see a lot of old man winter. Plenty of moisture coming up from the gulf with the arctic jet stream settling right over our heads. A combination that means WINTER. After Wed I belive we will have a break in the moisture for a few days, but will quickly return by the weekend. We should have nothing but average winter temps from Wed through Sunday. Highs in the mid to high 40's and lows in the mid to high 30's. After next Sunday is when the true test of forecasting comes in to play. The long range models are all showing one thing in common...cold air. Take a look at the image below....
I know you don't really understand what the model image above means...let me explain it simple... The black line that's coming from the north west and Canada and makes its way down to the southeast then back up to the northeast...well that's the Arctic air boundary. As you see, i circled our area on the map, clearly showing the arctic air as far south as Montgomery. Keep in mind that these are high altitude temps and the map is showing 14 degrees right over the TN valley for Tuesday the 22nd. No, don't worry, it won't get that cold at ground level, this is what the temps will look like in the clouds. Which from my understanding means our highs will be in the mid 30's on the ground. No matter who you are, that is some really freaking cold temps. And looking even further ahead on this model, it shows this arctic jet stream will stick around just like this through the beginning of Feb. I'm not even going to attempt to forecast the moisture this far out, as it is nearly impossible to do with the arctic air. But with what other short term models are showing me, we will have no shortage of moisture for the next two weeks. Temps in the 30's and plentiful moisture, means one thing....SNOW. Yes i said the S word again. I know y'all are tired of me saying this word, but you just don't know how many snow events have come so close to us in the past month. Once again, its all about the timing, and i honestly believe the timing is going to fall right into place for us very soon. So many things are lining up just perfect for us to have a great snow event in the next few weeks. Now, please keep in mind, no local meteorologist will even mention the word snow unless it is on the short term forecast models. Weather professionals in our area don't like to forecast for snow without being absolutely sure its going to happen. There is two much panic in our area to even think of the word snow without all the milk and bread being gone within the hour in every grocery store...that's Alabamians for you. :-) But rest assured...i surely don't mind mentioning any thought of snow. I will be watching the short term models over the next few days to see if any moisture develops over us at the same time as the arctic air.
To sum things up... My long term predictions for the next few weeks are very simple...cold air, and lots of moisture. We are defiantly going to see a lot of Winter for the rest of the month. Stock up on your firewood and be prepared to turn those heaters back on. I am watching a system on the short range models for next weekend, i will keep you posted...Time for winter again....stay tuned....
Laura
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