DON'T PANIC!!...ITS JUST WINTER!

Don't panic everyone, i know we haven't been used to these temps and winter weather, but get used to it.  Looks like old man winter is going to stay around for a while.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY and FLOOD WARNINGS

A winter weather advisory is in effect for parts of the TN Valley.  Ice is beginning to form on trees and metallic surfaces all over the western part of the valley.  The good news is that the rain is starting to weaken a bit as the temps are remaining just above or around freezing.  There is a low boundary of arctic air right above the surface which is causing the ice to form.  This is the reason for the winter weather advisory.  With this low boundary of really cold air, it causes the falling rain to freeze right at the surface.  The only problems i see with this ice is the possibility of some minor power outages because of ice on lines, and the issue of black ice.  There have been a few power outages in the area, but nothing serious.  Ice has been reported on some bridges and roads in the west but as long as you are careful and pay attention to what your doing when driving, you shouldn't have major travel issues.  Just be careful out there and stay calm.  One of the major problems with forecasting winter weather in the TN Valley is that people panic and cause accidents.  Don't panic, there is no need to run out for milk and bread, we aren't gonna get snowed in.  Just be cautious.  Any threat of Ice tonight, will be gone tomorrow by 9am.  Check out this map of counties including the advisory from WAFF.
Flooding is more of an issue in the TN Valley today.  The paint rock river and flint river are already covering some roads and making them  not passable.  Rain will continue for the next few days, which is a concern of mine.  Please be extra careful traveling around any type of creeks or rivers.  Also some flooding could occur around drainage ditches and street gutters.  So please be careful and DO not try to pass water covered roads unless absolutely necessary. 

Rain will continue on and off Tonight, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Early morning Thursday.  Temps will remain around the low to mid 40's for highs and mid 30's for lows.

SNOW THURSDAY??? 

Yes this is a possibility.  I have read numerous blogs today by our local forecasters where the word "accumulations" were mentioned.  As you know, none of them have put this in the forecast yet, as they are waiting to see if the models remain constant enough going into the rest of the week.  As you know I have been watching the potential for this snow system to develop over the last few days, here are my thoughts on the subject...
A upper-level low could form right to our south west Wednesday into Thursday. The track and timing of this upper low is very critical.  If it moves directly overhead, which is what the models are showing right now, dynamic cooling could cause wintry precipitation in the form of snow even if the temperatures are above freezing.  Models are hinting at a couple of inches of wet snow accumulations.  I believe this is very much possible Thursday afternoon.  But once again, it is really too far out to but this on any forecast.  Cold air masses and upper lows are very hard to predict more than 2-3 days in advance, as the models sometimes miss read these.  I will be watching it more closely the next few days and let you know if this is in fact going to happen. The details will become clearer over the next 24-36 hours as I see if the models maintain consistency.  Despite this upper level low concern, we should remain constiant with mid to high 40 temps and lows in the 30's going into the weekend.

Check out the NAM guidance future predictions.  This is a categorial model which is made up of other models different factors that produce falling moisture.  They have changed a little in the last few hours but not by much.  It all depends on the upper level low and how far east and south it will strengthen. 

THIS WEEKEND

All signs are pointing to this weekend being the sunniest weekend we have had in a while.  Temperature highs should remain in the upper 40's or low 50's with lows in the 30's.

NEXT WEEK

I am still following the cold air mass i was talking about in my last blog.  Some days next week we might not even get out of the 30's.  The next few days are critical when it comes to watching this cold air mass.  If we get too cold next week, we will be completely dry.  If we stay just at freezing (which is what models are pointing to now) then we will see lots of moisture with are greatest possibility of snow so far.  I will also be watching next week and keep you posted as I see updates in the models.

Stay tuned...
Laura

THE RAIN BRINGS WINTER BACK

Good ole mother nature fooled us again as Huntsville broke the record high today of 71 reaching 72 in the metro area.  Hot and mugging all day but no its not spring time and yes here comes the winter again.

Sunday-Tuesday...

This season has been one of the hardest in weather history to predict, but the next few days are pretty easy to predict for any meteorologist or forecaster.  Rain and more rain.  The gulf moisture coming up from the south and cold front coming from the west will collide and thicken the air bringing a crap load of rain to the valley in the next few days.  Really heavy rainfall is expected from Sunday through Tuesday.  A few strong storms capable of gusty winds are also possible.  But the main threat for the next few days will be very heavy rainfall and flooding.  To all my friends and family around the Flint, river flooding is also possible in the next few days, so be prepared.  Rainfall totals in the area are expected to reach 3-5 inches by the time the rain is gone Tuesday evening.  As the cold front starts to move through tomorrow temps will be in the mid-high 60's and fall to the mid-high 30's by early Monday morning.  Temps are expected to stay above the freezing mark, but could change and there for some frozen precip might be possible Monday into Tuesday, but only a 14% probability of the temps dropping below freezing.  The highs for Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid to low 40's.  BACK TO WINTER!!

UPDATE:  As I'm writing this blog I double checked the forecast guidance system and it now appears that the rain may stick around through Wednesday.  Instead of re-writing the above paragraph i decided just to update you with the current model image below.  This is the GFS prediction for Wed mid day.  As you can see, the rain is still around.

Wednesday and beyond....

Now for the more tricky forecasting.  A week ago i would of told you that we would be into the teens by mid week this week, but now its looking that we won't get that cold just yet.  Over the next few weeks I expect for us to see a lot of old man winter.  Plenty of moisture coming up from the gulf with the arctic jet stream settling right over our heads.  A combination that means WINTER.   After Wed I belive we will have a break in the moisture for a few days, but will quickly return by the weekend.  We should have nothing but average winter temps from Wed through Sunday.  Highs in the mid to high 40's and lows in the mid to high 30's.  After next Sunday is when the true test of forecasting comes in to play.  The long range models are all showing one thing in common...cold air.  Take a look at the image below....

I know you don't really understand what the model image above means...let me explain it simple...  The black line that's coming from the north west and Canada and makes its way down to the southeast then back up to the northeast...well that's the Arctic air boundary.  As you see, i circled our area on the map, clearly showing the arctic air as far south as Montgomery.  Keep in mind that these are high altitude temps and the map is showing 14 degrees right over the TN valley for Tuesday the 22nd.  No, don't worry, it won't get that cold at ground level, this is what the temps will look like in the clouds.  Which from my understanding means our highs will be in the mid 30's on the ground.  No matter who you are, that is some really freaking cold temps.  And looking even further ahead on this model, it shows this arctic jet stream will stick around just like this through the beginning of Feb.  I'm not even going to attempt to forecast the moisture this far out, as it is nearly impossible to do with the arctic air.  But with what other short term models are showing me, we will have no shortage of moisture for the next two weeks.  Temps in the 30's and plentiful moisture, means one thing....SNOW.  Yes i said the S word again.  I know y'all are tired of me saying this word, but you just don't know how many snow events have come so close to us in the past month.  Once again, its all about the timing, and i honestly believe the timing is going to fall right into place for us very soon.  So many things are lining up just perfect for us to have a great snow event in the next few weeks.  Now, please keep in mind, no local meteorologist will even mention the word snow unless it is on the short term forecast models.  Weather professionals in our area don't like to forecast for snow without being absolutely sure its going to happen.  There is two much panic in our area to even think of the word snow without all the milk and bread being gone within the hour in every grocery store...that's Alabamians for you.  :-)  But rest assured...i surely don't mind mentioning any thought of snow.  I will be watching the short term models over the next few days to see if any moisture develops over us at the same time as the arctic air. 

To sum things up...  My long term predictions for the next few weeks are very simple...cold air, and lots of moisture.  We are defiantly going to see a lot of Winter for the rest of the month.  Stock up on your firewood and be prepared to turn those heaters back on.  I am watching a system on the short range models for next weekend, i will keep you posted...Time for winter again....stay tuned....

Laura

HAPPY RAINY NEW YEAR!!!!

HAPPY 2013!!

Rain will continue throughout the first day of the new year.  Here is a current image of rain over the TN Valley...

Temps will stay around the upper 40's and maybe even brake into the lower 50's today.  Good day to clean up all those inside Christmas decorations and put up the tree.  The rain will start to move out of our area tonight, with a few possible lingering rain showers in the early morning.

THE REST OF THE WEEK

The system I've been watching on the NAM guidance system for the past week, has completed changed and will NOT effect the valley like previously forecast.   The northern boundary I was talking about, which would of made the system stall over us to bring plentiful snow, is now predicted to move more southward, causing a block to the moisture.  Some rain for southern AL is expected WED-THURS, but nothing for us.  This system was coming together perfectly for snow for us, like a great game of chess, the pieces were all aligned, then boom, one piece moved and the whole forecast changes.  Like I've been saying all along...TIMING is everything.  However, any moisture we do see WED-THURS will be in frozen form, maybe a few passing flurries like we have had in the past week, but i'm not forecasting for any moisture at all.

I've also noticed a few more changes in the NAM guidance prediction for the next few days.  We will start to see a calming trend for the remainder of the week.  Some really beautiful sunny days are coming.  The clouds will start to move out of the Valley on Thursday, making way for some cold but gorgeous outside days for the weekend.  New Redneck 7 Day says it all....

I am tracking another possible storm or snow maker to move across the valley the middle of next week, so please get out and enjoy the beautiful weather the rest of this week.  More details to come...stay tuned....

Laura

SNOW PREDICTIONS EVERYWHERE!!!

I'm done trying to guess exactly when the snow is going to get here, but for all those who want a good purty snow, check out the forecasts below.  Some are saying next week, some are saying next weekend, and even more long range snow predicted going into January.  The timing and areas effected will change between now and then, but this does give us hope that snow is popping up everywhere for our 7 day and long range forecast.

Also take a look at two of the future forecast models for next week.  Looks like snow to me.

Stay tuned...

Laura

ITS THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT!!

PLEASE REMEMBER THAT EVERYTHING SAID IN THIS BLOG POST AND OTHER POST BY ME, ARE SIMPLY MY OPINIONS, I'M NOT A PROFESSIONAL SCIENTIST OR METEOROLOGIST.  I'M JUST A SIMPLE REDNECK GIVING YOU MY OPINION AS I SEE IT.

ITS THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT!!

Yes i said it!  All though I don't believe its the end of the world, but i do believe things are going to change from what we know as our weather pattern.   As you all know, i haven't really posted a blog lately  as i have been researching the different forecast models for the upcoming days and also this big event for Friday.  All of the planets will be aligned, which I and many government scientist believe that this alignment will cause a massive change in our climate and other weather conditions.  Do i have prove of this...NO...am i a scientist....NO, but i am a purty smart redneck.  :-)  I don't know what the future has in store for us, nor do I really care all that much.  But i do believe there are some climate changes coming...only Friday will tell.  So don't panic, we aren't gonna have a zombie Apocalypse or the world caving in around us and California dropping in the ocean...no...that i belive is all bullshit.  I just believe the alignment of the planets on Friday will cause a massive change in the worlds climate pattern and jetsream pattern as the magnetic fields around the earth might possibly shift just a little.  Like I said...only Friday will tell.

Ok, now that's out of the way, lets get to the forecast as i see it right now for the next week....

TODAY IS BEAUTIFUL, PLEASE ENJOY THIS LAST BEAUTIFUL DAY OF THE YEAR.  GET YOUR LAST MINUTE SHOPPING DONE, MAYBE EVEN TAKE A WALK IN THE WOODS WITH THE DOGS AND ENJOY OUR 60'S FOR THE LAST TIME TILL A FEW MONTHS FROM NOW.

THURSDAY

All i need to say for Thursday's forecast is  RAIN AND MORE RAIN.  A week ago the models were showing a possibility of the cold air getting here first but, as it turns out, this system is moving faster than the arctic air, and there for we are yet again on the rain and storms side of this system.  Expect the rain to start around 1 or 2am tomorrow morning with wind at around 13MPH, by the afternoon hours we might see some isolated storms with wind at around 25MPH with stronger gust possible.  A wind advisory has been put in affect for the TNN valley starting late tonight into the day tomorrow.  So please tie down all those snowman and reindeer in your front yard.  We don't want your Santa to end up down the road.  :-)  Temps will start out in the mid 50's tomorrow, and end up in the low 40's by 5pm.  Thursday night will be much much colder than tonight.

Maps showing our severe outlook through the next 48 hours

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY

Friday and Saturdays forecast looks to be some what cloudy with some cold wind.  Highs will be in the mid 40's and low's in the mid 20's.  Please bundle up for that last minute shopping.

SUNDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

So far Sunday looks to be a little cloudy with some rain possible Sunday night.  Not quite sure yet, but i believe the rain will not get here till Monday   Everyone (local and national weather guys) are tracking a major winter storm heading our way.  We aren't quite sure of the timing and areas affected.  But as i see it, it looks to be a very wet Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, with a possibility of storms on Christmas. However, i did just read a blog post by one of our local guys, giving me just a little hope for a little snow on Christmas.  The picture below shows the snow cover for next Wednesday   Look at the line of snow just across the TN state line.  He said that he wants us to have a little hope for snow, that it is possible with this system, its all about timing.  And once the system for this Thursday gets out of the way, we will have a clearer picture for Christmas Day, so keep your fingers crossed for the white stuff. 

all the blue above is snow on the ground Wednesday after Christmas.

I know I've predicted snow, i know i said we would have it by now.  All early signs pointed to it happening.  But remember, our winter hasn't even began yet.  We will have snow, it won't be a snow drought like last year, and when we have it, my fear is that it will be a major event in our area.  I'm still researching the future and will give you updates as often as i can.  Don't worry kids, the snow will get here.  It's just taking a little longer than I and most of the weather professionals thought it would.

To sum things up...

Tomorrow is wet and windy, the next few days are really F*@#*#g cold, no more 60's this winter, and moisture in some form is possible for Christmas.

Redneck 7 Day update coming later today...

Stay tuned....

Laura

CRAZIER THAN A RUN OVER DOG

The Redneck 7 Day says it all.  This weather is crazier than a run over dog.  Every day the forecast models are changing.  Luckily I've now found a great site to look at all 3 major weather guidance systems and their many forecast models for wind, moisture, speed, etc...  I'm not going to mention the name yet, might get a sponsor later. :-) So here's my opinion of the next few days....

Who the Hell knows???

These maps are updated a few times a day, and every time they do, they change.  This  fu@$*!@g  cold air sometimes doesn't show up on a lot of the forecast maps until its closer to us, and if it does show up, it changes everyday.  I have lowered my 98% chance for snow in the next few days to a 85%, only because at the last minute something can always change.  We are facing very active weather in the next few days, ups and downs, i can't really say for sure on anything until the day before or day it happens right now.  All the local guys are having the same issue.  Have you noticed how much their 7 days change lately?  I guess I'll take a stab at it though.

Thursday into Friday  the cold air moves back up north just slightly.  We will have some average high 50s during the day and 30s at night.  Then Saturday I believe the moisture will set back in ahead of the cold air bringing in some nasty cold rain into Sunday.  Some black ice might be possible over night, if the temps get colder like I expect.  We might have highs in the low 50s on Sunday, but I will keep the forecast a little higher for now.  Monday is going to be a very dull and ugly day, cold temps with maybe a little drizzle like rain into the night hours, then early Tuesday morning i suspect a huge amount of unstable air (crazy air) to be over top of us.  If this air comes right as the moisture and cold air set in, we could have a dusting of snow and some pretty snow showers Tuesday in the evening hours..  If the moisture comes a few hours earlier or later, i believe we could have a few heavy nasty rain showers and a few sleet showers.  Either way, i believe something frozen is coming our way soon. Into Wednesday i believe the cold air will remain, longer than it did this week, with some gusty north winds and below average temps, but with the sun peaking through right before sundown.  Looking ahead, I'm tracking another area of unstable air and cold moisture coming our way closer to the weekend before Christmas, maybe not a white Christmas, but possibly a little snow on the ground for Christmas Eve???

This map shows the unstable air i was mentioning for next Tuesday.

Expect a more long range forecast after the 15th, NOAA will publish its long range models at that time.
I'm expecting January to be much colder than this month, we will see.  I will be updating you on Facebook as the maps change.  Keep an eye on the Redneck 7 Day for your complete extended week forecast.  Redneck 7 Day is updated every night around 10:30 or so.

Stay tuned...

Laura

REDNECK 7 DAY

I know i said i'd have another blog post for you this evening  But as it turns out, this next system is changing everyday and we are 170 hours away from another very active system, and already snow predictions are coming it....Stay Tuned for many updates to come, as there might be many changes in the next few days...

NEW TO LAURA'S FORECAST

REDNECK 7 DAY

click on the forecast below to make it bigger