SNOW PREDICTIONS EVERYWHERE!!!

I'm done trying to guess exactly when the snow is going to get here, but for all those who want a good purty snow, check out the forecasts below.  Some are saying next week, some are saying next weekend, and even more long range snow predicted going into January.  The timing and areas effected will change between now and then, but this does give us hope that snow is popping up everywhere for our 7 day and long range forecast.

Also take a look at two of the future forecast models for next week.  Looks like snow to me.

Stay tuned...

Laura

ITS THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT!!

PLEASE REMEMBER THAT EVERYTHING SAID IN THIS BLOG POST AND OTHER POST BY ME, ARE SIMPLY MY OPINIONS, I'M NOT A PROFESSIONAL SCIENTIST OR METEOROLOGIST.  I'M JUST A SIMPLE REDNECK GIVING YOU MY OPINION AS I SEE IT.

ITS THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT!!

Yes i said it!  All though I don't believe its the end of the world, but i do believe things are going to change from what we know as our weather pattern.   As you all know, i haven't really posted a blog lately  as i have been researching the different forecast models for the upcoming days and also this big event for Friday.  All of the planets will be aligned, which I and many government scientist believe that this alignment will cause a massive change in our climate and other weather conditions.  Do i have prove of this...NO...am i a scientist....NO, but i am a purty smart redneck.  :-)  I don't know what the future has in store for us, nor do I really care all that much.  But i do believe there are some climate changes coming...only Friday will tell.  So don't panic, we aren't gonna have a zombie Apocalypse or the world caving in around us and California dropping in the ocean...no...that i belive is all bullshit.  I just believe the alignment of the planets on Friday will cause a massive change in the worlds climate pattern and jetsream pattern as the magnetic fields around the earth might possibly shift just a little.  Like I said...only Friday will tell.

Ok, now that's out of the way, lets get to the forecast as i see it right now for the next week....

TODAY IS BEAUTIFUL, PLEASE ENJOY THIS LAST BEAUTIFUL DAY OF THE YEAR.  GET YOUR LAST MINUTE SHOPPING DONE, MAYBE EVEN TAKE A WALK IN THE WOODS WITH THE DOGS AND ENJOY OUR 60'S FOR THE LAST TIME TILL A FEW MONTHS FROM NOW.

THURSDAY

All i need to say for Thursday's forecast is  RAIN AND MORE RAIN.  A week ago the models were showing a possibility of the cold air getting here first but, as it turns out, this system is moving faster than the arctic air, and there for we are yet again on the rain and storms side of this system.  Expect the rain to start around 1 or 2am tomorrow morning with wind at around 13MPH, by the afternoon hours we might see some isolated storms with wind at around 25MPH with stronger gust possible.  A wind advisory has been put in affect for the TNN valley starting late tonight into the day tomorrow.  So please tie down all those snowman and reindeer in your front yard.  We don't want your Santa to end up down the road.  :-)  Temps will start out in the mid 50's tomorrow, and end up in the low 40's by 5pm.  Thursday night will be much much colder than tonight.

Maps showing our severe outlook through the next 48 hours

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY

Friday and Saturdays forecast looks to be some what cloudy with some cold wind.  Highs will be in the mid 40's and low's in the mid 20's.  Please bundle up for that last minute shopping.

SUNDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

So far Sunday looks to be a little cloudy with some rain possible Sunday night.  Not quite sure yet, but i believe the rain will not get here till Monday   Everyone (local and national weather guys) are tracking a major winter storm heading our way.  We aren't quite sure of the timing and areas affected.  But as i see it, it looks to be a very wet Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, with a possibility of storms on Christmas. However, i did just read a blog post by one of our local guys, giving me just a little hope for a little snow on Christmas.  The picture below shows the snow cover for next Wednesday   Look at the line of snow just across the TN state line.  He said that he wants us to have a little hope for snow, that it is possible with this system, its all about timing.  And once the system for this Thursday gets out of the way, we will have a clearer picture for Christmas Day, so keep your fingers crossed for the white stuff. 

all the blue above is snow on the ground Wednesday after Christmas.

I know I've predicted snow, i know i said we would have it by now.  All early signs pointed to it happening.  But remember, our winter hasn't even began yet.  We will have snow, it won't be a snow drought like last year, and when we have it, my fear is that it will be a major event in our area.  I'm still researching the future and will give you updates as often as i can.  Don't worry kids, the snow will get here.  It's just taking a little longer than I and most of the weather professionals thought it would.

To sum things up...

Tomorrow is wet and windy, the next few days are really F*@#*#g cold, no more 60's this winter, and moisture in some form is possible for Christmas.

Redneck 7 Day update coming later today...

Stay tuned....

Laura

CRAZIER THAN A RUN OVER DOG

The Redneck 7 Day says it all.  This weather is crazier than a run over dog.  Every day the forecast models are changing.  Luckily I've now found a great site to look at all 3 major weather guidance systems and their many forecast models for wind, moisture, speed, etc...  I'm not going to mention the name yet, might get a sponsor later. :-) So here's my opinion of the next few days....

Who the Hell knows???

These maps are updated a few times a day, and every time they do, they change.  This  fu@$*!@g  cold air sometimes doesn't show up on a lot of the forecast maps until its closer to us, and if it does show up, it changes everyday.  I have lowered my 98% chance for snow in the next few days to a 85%, only because at the last minute something can always change.  We are facing very active weather in the next few days, ups and downs, i can't really say for sure on anything until the day before or day it happens right now.  All the local guys are having the same issue.  Have you noticed how much their 7 days change lately?  I guess I'll take a stab at it though.

Thursday into Friday  the cold air moves back up north just slightly.  We will have some average high 50s during the day and 30s at night.  Then Saturday I believe the moisture will set back in ahead of the cold air bringing in some nasty cold rain into Sunday.  Some black ice might be possible over night, if the temps get colder like I expect.  We might have highs in the low 50s on Sunday, but I will keep the forecast a little higher for now.  Monday is going to be a very dull and ugly day, cold temps with maybe a little drizzle like rain into the night hours, then early Tuesday morning i suspect a huge amount of unstable air (crazy air) to be over top of us.  If this air comes right as the moisture and cold air set in, we could have a dusting of snow and some pretty snow showers Tuesday in the evening hours..  If the moisture comes a few hours earlier or later, i believe we could have a few heavy nasty rain showers and a few sleet showers.  Either way, i believe something frozen is coming our way soon. Into Wednesday i believe the cold air will remain, longer than it did this week, with some gusty north winds and below average temps, but with the sun peaking through right before sundown.  Looking ahead, I'm tracking another area of unstable air and cold moisture coming our way closer to the weekend before Christmas, maybe not a white Christmas, but possibly a little snow on the ground for Christmas Eve???

This map shows the unstable air i was mentioning for next Tuesday.

Expect a more long range forecast after the 15th, NOAA will publish its long range models at that time.
I'm expecting January to be much colder than this month, we will see.  I will be updating you on Facebook as the maps change.  Keep an eye on the Redneck 7 Day for your complete extended week forecast.  Redneck 7 Day is updated every night around 10:30 or so.

Stay tuned...

Laura

REDNECK 7 DAY

I know i said i'd have another blog post for you this evening  But as it turns out, this next system is changing everyday and we are 170 hours away from another very active system, and already snow predictions are coming it....Stay Tuned for many updates to come, as there might be many changes in the next few days...

NEW TO LAURA'S FORECAST

REDNECK 7 DAY

click on the forecast below to make it bigger

AND THE THUNDER ROLLS

Small random storms around the valley tonight.  The stronger ones are beginning to move across the state line as of 1:00AM Monday morning.  The Huntsville metro area will see its strongest storms between 3AM and 4AM.  Nothing to severe is expected right now, but please stay weather aware.  Tomorrow we will indeed see some much needed rain, but by the time this winter season is over, we are going to hate the rain.  All long range forecast still say we will have above average moisture and precip the next few months.  I still believe our snow chances are just around the corner.  However the wave effect i keep mentioning is really tricky to forecast.  Forecast maps are changing every hour.  This is all due to the freaking cold air up north making its way to us while hot air down south collides with it.  The cold air becomes very unpredictable.  We will be using our heaters this time tomorrow night.  Lows for the next week will remain, very cold!!  We will most likely be around average for daytime highs by Friday, but i believe lows will not get above 35.  But yet again, this all depends on the timing of the cold air and hot air.  We might stay below average all week.  But if we don't, next week we will.  I will have a bigger blog tomorrow on my predictions for the next week.  Stay tuned...

Laura

Current Radar as of 1:02 AM Monday Morning

THE RAIN MOVES IN

I know i promised an update to the long range forecast, but i'm still researching this pattern of gulf moisture   Some new models are showing an overlapping that will create another strong system to head our way in a week or so.  It depends on how long the arctic air stays south.  The negative Atlantic oscillation pattern suggest that it will stay over us for a while, but other things don't.  Stay tuned...

The Next 3 Days:

Tomorrow we will have low 70's or upper 60's.  Maybe a small shower or two towards the evening hours.  As the front builds it will get windy at times.  Into Sunday the temps will stay in the mid to upper 50's.  Sunday the high will be in the low to mid 70's and very breezy.  By 10PM the rain will start to build in the west part of the state.  Over night into Monday the temp should be around the upper 50's and stormy into the morning hours.  Through out the day on Monday we will see some strong, cold, rain storms.  Not expecting anything too severe anymore, but we will see a lot of widespread rain over the valley.  Still expecting 2-3 inches of rain.  The rain is forecast to be out of the valley by 2PM or so, if the front doesn't slow down anymore.  The temps will be in the low 40's or even the mid 30's by the evening hours, also depending on the speed of the system.  Tuesday will be freaking cold!!

Keep in mind, the timing of this rain has been moved further and further back over the last few days.  If it continues to move we could see a shift in the moisture.  I'll keep an eye on the speed of the system as it builds.

More tomorrow...

Laura

THE NEXT FEW DAYS

Did i ever mention how much I love the weather?  I study deeper into the science of it all, it sure does get interesting.  Ok, lets start tonight with a day by day break down of the next few days....

Friday 12/7/12
The warm air from the gulf and cold air in the north begin to head towards each other pushing off to the east.  A Breezy start to the weekend, Maybe a mist like sprinkle or two.
5% Chance of Rain
H 68/  L 50

Saturday 12/8/12
As the north and south air move closer we will see a little chance for showers in the evening, but mainly in the west parts of the TN valley.  Stronger Wind than Friday
25% Chance of Rain
H 69/ L 54

Precip expected for the next 48 hours

Sunday 12/9/12
Strong wind at times, spotty showers all day.
40% Chance of Rain
H 72/ L 56

Monday 12/10/12
Pretty much stormy all day as the system will slow down over top of us.  1-3 Inches of rain expected.  Possible isolated strong thunderstorm, with very strong wind.  Stay inside if you can, its going to be an ICKY day.
95% Chance of Rain
H 58/ L.....really freaking cold by the evening
*if severe weather threatens, i will be posting updates on the hour, with Facebook updates more often*

secondary low pressure forming over us to produce the stormy weather monday

Tuesday 12/11/12
A very cloudy and cold day.  When you step outside on Tuesday morning, you will know IT'S DECEMBER!
H 45/ L 27

Wednesday 12/12/12
Sunny and cold.
H 50/ L 28

Thursday and Beyond:

Forecast models are beginning to become clearer as we get closer into December   We are tracking another system to move in sometime next weekend.  I'm not quite sure how fast it will get here or how long it will last (another timing issue).  But i will be looking further into it as the week progresses.  I've heard a lot of talk this evening about the upcoming weeks.  I've seen a lot of forecast models and determine that the majority of scientist are saying we will have colder than normal temps and above normal precip in the next 3 weeks.


Meteorologist Quotes from Today:

 "above normal moisture with below normal temps...we all know what form moisture will take when it enters the cold air"

"the southeast and mid-east will be a battle zone for winter weather before the end of the year"


I don't want to give you a forecast for Thursday yet, as i'm not quite sure what the day will bring just yet.  The average forecaster temp is 54 as the high and 31 as the low, but i think it will change as the next few days play out.  Please keep a watch on my long range forecast, as i believe this next system will be our first chance at flurries.  If the forecast models keep showing me what they have been, then we might actually have a good size snow storm as early as 8 days from now.  We will see, it changes every hour as the arctic air moves closer and closer to us.  My suspicion about the cold air reaching South New Mexico was right, it will be at their door Saturday morning.  A deeper long range forecast will be posted tomorrow.

Laura

SMALL WEEKEND UPDATE

Storms on the Way:


Please be prepared for severe weather this weekend.  We are not quite sure exactly what type of weather we will get this weekend. but most forecast models are leaning towards severe weather Sunday night into Monday night, possible Tornado mentioned by more than one meteorologist.  The higher the temps go Saturday and Sunday will be a strong indication as to what type of severe weather we get Sunday Night.  Please stay tuned for more updates.  If severe weather does in fact occur this weekend, i will be giving updates on the hour during the storms.

THE LAND OF VOODOO:

Throughout all my research the past few days, I've realized that it is very hard to predict arctic air.  Most forecast software have a hard time picking up the exact systems and patterns in arctic air.  It is much easier to predict high pressure systems.  But, there is still strong evidence of a major pattern change which will open the door for much much colder weather over the latter half of December.  I get the idea our high Monday will be reached early in the morning and I expect temperatures to fall Monday too the 40's by mid afternoon with cold cold north wind.  The forecast temperatures for next Tuesday into Wednesday has lowered by an average of 30 degrees since this time yesterday for much of the forecast models   I get the idea that temperatures here will be below average as we celebrate Christmas, New Years and beyond.  I believe we won't go above mid 50's after this weekend till the end of February   The upcoming 25 days remain in the land of voodoo, anything could happen.  I mean anything!!

Brad Travis, Chief Meteorologist, WAFF 48   6 PM Forecast

I will be updating the blog a lot over the next few days as more developments are discovered, please stay tuned in!

Laura

THE COLD IS COMING!!!

Drum role please.......its coming!!

OK, within the last 24 hours a lot of different forecast models have been circulating the internet.  All forecasters are trying to predict this massive arctic trough entering the US. The arctic air we have been tracking is on its way sooner than later.

First thing First.... I am about 90% sure we will have severe weather this weekend or early next week.  The cold air trough i was mentioning before, will be entering the lower 48 states starting this week.  Its still too far out to tell how far south and east it will go and when exactly it will meet us.  Remember in my last blog post I talked about timing?  Yes timing is everything going into this upcoming weekend and next week.  Its because of this timing that many forecasters and meteorologist are saying "stay tuned for changing weather over the next week"

"The threat of severe weather for the southeast is shifting into Sunday night into Monday morning.  Something we are keeping a close eye on....There will be more changes on the strength and location of the center of the developing storm with time.  Stay tuned as the threat becomes more clear over the coming days."

  Brad Travis
  Chief Meteorologist
  WAFF Storm Team

I really can't predict this upcoming week.  But I think, based upon my research  that we will have severe weather Sunday night into Monday with a big drop in temps on Tuesday   In other words i think this front will not give us chances for flurries  but will give us a decent drop in temps and cold rain almost all week next week.  But, i do believe our snow chances are in the next 10-15 days.

The Canada arctic air trough is beginning its descend south.  I think that this weekend it will begin its first real ridge (wave) effect dipping into the mid US and shooting back up when it hits Texas and going straight for the north east.  Just behind us and above us.  But here's the kicker... Based on my research i think the snow will reach as far mid south as South New Mexico by Tuesday.  Which means....although the timing of the system and the cold air isn't right this time, it will be when we get another storm system in a week or so.  As that cold air moves from New Mexico East, it will be right smack on top of us.

Its just really too early to tell what will happen a week from now.  Although... 2 local 10pm weather forecast have lowered the Temp for next Tuesday more than 5 degrees since the 5pm news.  Hmmmmm????

Stay tuned for more updates as we get closer to the weekend. But please be prepared for severe weather this weekend.  I believe that is a definite!

On a personal note...
I'd like to wish a very HAPPY BIRTHDAY to my mother.  I love you Mom!

Laura

Weather Channel Winter Updates

Winter Weather Update

December 3, 2012
More snow is on the way for the mountains of the Pacific Northwest. Cold air will begin pushing into the country midweek, and by the weekend we could be looking at a significant snowstorm in the Central U.S.

The maps on this page illustrate where cold air is building.  Blue-shaded areas indicate where a polar air mass with temperatures from 0 to 30 degrees is lurking.  Pink-shaded areas depict subzero cold areas.  

Cold air masses have their origin from Canada, Alaska, and, sometimes, even Siberia!  Air temperatures in the heart of winter can sometimes plunge colder than -60 degrees in low elevation, valley locations of Alaska, Canada and Siberia.

Given the right atmospheric pattern, this building cold air can plunge deep into the Lower 48 States, potentially locking in the West, Midwest, and/or East.  This cold air does "modify", or become less cold, as it plunges south into the Lower 48 States.

Is it Spring Time??? 2/3/12 Look Ahead

Yes, the forecast for the Tennessee valley today called for highs in the mid 70's.  Above normal for this time of year.  Tuesday into Wednesday a cold front will be entering the valley, bringing us a possibility for some good cold rain and winds.  No, ITS NOT SPRING TIME!  :-) Temps should begin to become normal heading into Thursday.  Another system will be moving in over the weekend adding to the temperature wave effect and possibly bringing in some strong storms.  I'll keep you posted.

Tonight Dec 03		Partly Cloudy	52°	10 %
Tue Dec 04		PM Showers	68°/48°	30 %
Wed Dec 05		AM Showers	62°/39°	30 %
Thu Dec 06		Partly Cloudy	61°/45°	10 %
Fri Dec 07		Cloudy	61°/50°	10 %
Sat Dec 08		Partly Cloudy	65°/50°	20 %
Sun Dec 09		Showers	70°/44°	40 %
Mon Dec 10		Showers	62°/41°	40 %
Tue Dec 11		Sunny	51°/31°	0 %
Wed Dec 12		Cloudy	49°/31°	0 %

LONG RANGE FORECAST UPDATES:

I still remain firm at a 98% possibility of a big snow storm.  Remember, it is very hard for any meteorologist or scientist to predict the weather more than 10 days in advance.  Long rang forecast are basically opinions of these professionals based on weather history and current weather patterns.  My forecast is simply my opinion based on local and national forecasters and my research of weather history and the weather patterns.

I have used a lot of comparison in the past month, to the weather this time 2010.  As we get closer to our winter season, I believe that there are even stronger indications of this winter being much like the winter of 2010/2011.  The jetsream troughs, storms in the northwest, and current above average temps are almost an exact to the patterns of that winter 2 years ago.  Our current above average temps were also a factor this time 2 years ago.  Then on December 6, 2010 we had the first real trough of cold air dip to the southeast, making the temp high drop from the mid 60s to the mid 30's overnight.  Bringing very cold arctic air to the valley, cooling the ground, and drying the air ahead of many storm systems we saw that month.  Thus began the jetsream wave effect for that winter.  Average temps one day and below average the next.  Storm systems arriving with cold fronts and meeting the trough at the right time caused the many winter storms we had December-January.  Around mid December 2010 we started to see our first signs of flurries  ice, and snow flakes.  Snow one day and 60's the next.  Based on my research i believe the current weather pattern to be the same.

A few things are different how ever... Timing is everything when weather is concerned.   The trough and wave patterns are starting a little later this year than in 2010, missing some good storm systems.  If the timing of storm systems and the timing of the jetsream trough don't match up, we will just be stuck with yucky cold rain, and maybe a little black ice.  That is why i still leave a 2% chance that we won't see any winter at all.

LETS SUM IT UP:

To sum things up, Enjoy today, because tomorrow will be different.  Now we have above average temps and in a few short days our temps will be closer to average.  Storms are developing more frequently out northwest and the jetsream is slowly sagging south.  When the trough meets these storms over our head into next week, we may just see our first flurries of the year!  Timing is Everything!

November 30th Facebook Post

It's warmer right now in Wisconsin than we are. I'm Reading about even more strong possibility of snow before the end of December, I'm thinking close to Christmas...cold air is locked up in Canada and the wind pattern around it is shoving the warm air our way. Longer-term, there still appears to be a trend toward colder and colder weather as the month of December goes on. we just might see that jetsream with a wave effect and dip down our way in about two weeks or so as a cold air trough. The air getting colder through the month of December is normal for this time of year, but when it gets much colder than “average,” it becomes a different story! Most meteorologist and forecast models are pointing that direction. The arctic air in Canada is some extreme cold air. Plenty or neg temps up there right now. Also the northern hemisphere is setting up storm systems that can set the stage for some good size storm systems to meet up with that cold air right over top of us. Like always, i could be wrong, but as it gets closer to Christmas, the forecast keeps more likely for some snowy conditions. I will keep an eye on the forecast models and climate conditions, You know I will keep you posted.

November 19th Facebook Post

UPDATED WINTER OUTLOOK 11.19.12...DRYER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FOR THE WEST, COLDER AND SNOWIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST.
Ok everyone, i know i talk about the winter forecast a lot, i know i have a lot of wishful thinking when it comes to snow, but today's updated forecast, actually has me a bit worried. As we get closer to December the forecast is giving us a stronger possibility of not just snow, but snow storms like the big one in January of 2011. But not just one big storm, a round of several storms as far south as B-ham. We in the TNN Valley are expected to have at least a 2 degree percentage of below normal temps for December-February as well. I love it when it snows, but im asking all my family and friends to be prepared, have candles, bottled water, and even a gas heater or Coleman stove. If its just snow and not ice, then we shouldn't have power issues, but i suspect a few ice storms and a few snow storms through the next 3 months. I know our weather at this moment looks good for the next week or so, but if my research is correct, we could have our first sight of snow within the next 3-4 weeks. Now, keep in mind that this is my interpretation of the forecast, im not a meteorologist (although im starting to think i should go to school to be one) but i have been researching the NAO pattern since July of this year, and so far, all the meteorologist and weather bloggers have re-affirmed my predictions. I could be wrong, and we might not have any snow, but so far as we get closer and closer to this season, the forecast calls for more and more possibility of these snow chances. Even the farmers almanac has changed their long rang forecast to include our first snow the week before and week of Christmas. Now, before we get the snow, we will probably have a good round of cold storms, windy and cold rain, maybe even a few thunderstorms or possible tornado before the end of the year. You might think, our ground isn't' cold enough to support the snow, your wrong. As you may have noticed, last month we had several weeks of below average temps. This month our temps have been normal, but with periods of below average temps. Which means the ground is cold enough. Also if we have the cold air predicted by the experts, then any storm system that we get will drop the ground degrees by a lot. I apologize for the long novel, but to sum things up. Please be prepared for winter because im 98% sure its gonna be a cold, stormy, and snowy one. More updates to come.