Yes, the forecast for the Tennessee valley today called for highs in the mid 70's. Above normal for this time of year. Tuesday into Wednesday a cold front will be entering the valley, bringing us a possibility for some good cold rain and winds. No, ITS NOT SPRING TIME! :-) Temps should begin to become normal heading into Thursday. Another system will be moving in over the weekend adding to the temperature wave effect and possibly bringing in some strong storms. I'll keep you posted.
| Tonight Dec 03 |  | Partly Cloudy | 52° | 10 % |
| Tue Dec 04 |  | PM Showers | 68°/48° | 30 % |
| Wed Dec 05 | | AM Showers | 62°/39° | 30 % |
| Thu Dec 06 |  | Partly Cloudy | 61°/45° | 10 % |
| Fri Dec 07 |  | Cloudy | 61°/50° | 10 % |
| Sat Dec 08 | | Partly Cloudy | 65°/50° | 20 % |
| Sun Dec 09 |  | Showers | 70°/44° | 40 % |
| Mon Dec 10 | | Showers | 62°/41° | 40 % |
| Tue Dec 11 |  | Sunny | 51°/31° | 0 % |
| Wed Dec 12 | | Cloudy | 49°/31° | 0 % |
LONG RANGE FORECAST UPDATES:
I still remain firm at a 98% possibility of a big snow storm. Remember, it is very hard for any meteorologist or scientist to predict the weather more than 10 days in advance. Long rang forecast are basically opinions of these professionals based on weather history and current weather patterns. My forecast is simply my opinion based on local and national forecasters and my research of weather history and the weather patterns.
I have used a lot of comparison in the past month, to the weather this time 2010. As we get closer to our winter season, I believe that there are even stronger indications of this winter being much like the winter of 2010/2011. The jetsream troughs, storms in the northwest, and current above average temps are almost an exact to the patterns of that winter 2 years ago. Our current above average temps were also a factor this time 2 years ago. Then on December 6, 2010 we had the first real trough of cold air dip to the southeast, making the temp high drop from the mid 60s to the mid 30's overnight. Bringing very cold arctic air to the valley, cooling the ground, and drying the air ahead of many storm systems we saw that month. Thus began the jetsream wave effect for that winter. Average temps one day and below average the next. Storm systems arriving with cold fronts and meeting the trough at the right time caused the many winter storms we had December-January. Around mid December 2010 we started to see our first signs of flurries ice, and snow flakes. Snow one day and 60's the next. Based on my research i believe the current weather pattern to be the same.
A few things are different how ever... Timing is everything when weather is concerned. The trough and wave patterns are starting a little later this year than in 2010, missing some good storm systems. If the timing of storm systems and the timing of the jetsream trough don't match up, we will just be stuck with yucky cold rain, and maybe a little black ice. That is why i still leave a 2% chance that we won't see any winter at all.
LETS SUM IT UP:
To sum things up, Enjoy today, because tomorrow will be different. Now we have above average temps and in a few short days our temps will be closer to average. Storms are developing more frequently out northwest and the jetsream is slowly sagging south. When the trough meets these storms over our head into next week, we may just see our first flurries of the year! Timing is Everything!
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