STORMS A COMIN, MY SPRING OUTLOOK!!

This Afternoon...well afternoon is almost over, but for the most part it has been a windy one.  That breeze feels  awesome when your out side working...well continue working...that breeze will stick around into the night.  No rain expected at all until after dark...so get out and enjoy that nice breeze while you can.  Just no fishing...there are enough lures in trees...this wind will make it really hard to cast. 

Tonight... OK here we go again.  It is spring time in Alabama and you all know what that means...storms!!  We are in for a treat again tonight.  The National Whether Service has the East TNN Valley at a slight risk for tornadoes, and the West TNN Valley at a moderate risk.  What does this mean...well west of I65 hold on to your hats, its gonna be a long night.  East of I65...stay weather aware as well...we can't predict the exact timing and areas affected until its actually happening, so please tune those weather radios tonight and keep an eye on the sky.  Activation of storm spotters is expected tonight.

Here is my predictions on timing, the majority of Forecasters are expecting around the same timing of these storms.

9:30 PM  The rain will start out to the west at the AL MISS line.

10 PM to around 1:30 AM
Wayne, Lawrence, Lauderdale, Colbert, Franklin and Marion Counties will see severe storms with damaging winds, possible hail and maybe even a few rotating super cells that could produce tornadoes.

1:30 AM to around 3 AM 
The storms are expected to weaken a bit as they move east but that doesn't mean they will.  The threat for severe storms at this time will be for counties like Madison, Morgan, Limestone, and Cullman.

3 AM to around 7 AM
At this point the storms are expected to be weaker.  All though there is still a chance of isolated storms for Marshall, Jackson, DeKalb, Etowah, and Blount Counties at this time of the morning.

Please take the word "expected" lightly.  It is very hard to predict the exact timing and areas effected by this system more than a few hours ahead.  Even at 3 in the afternoon, it is too far to tell where exactly these storms are gonna hit, what time, and how severe they will be.  Stay Weather Aware!!

ALSO...WATCH THE TEMPS AS THESE STORMS MOVE PAST US ON FRIDAY...IT MIGHT BE POSSIBLE THAT WE HAVE A FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  MY FORECASTER TEMP IS 36...BUT IT COULD GET LOWER...ILL LET YOU KNOW CLOSER TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  JUST WANTED ALL MY REDNECK GARDENERS TO BE AWARE!

HERE ARE A FEW PICS FROM OUR LOCAL FORECASTERS ON TONIGHT'S SYSTEM.

MY SPRING OUTLOOK

I did have a big blog on my spring outlook, but couldn't get enough people to participate with questions...sorry to the two people who did...but without enough questions, the blog i wrote wasn't gonna work...so here is my simple and brief Spring Outlook....

What you see is what you get!!!

Meaning..... The last two weeks have pretty much been what i predicted for this spring.  I believe it will continue up and down like this into the middle to last week of May.  I don't think we will hit the mid 90's (Summer) till around the early part of June.  We will continue to see rain, storms, wind, and possible tornadoes for the next month or two.  Some 80's, then a cold front will move through producing storms in its path, and then back to the 60's.  Rinse and Repeat.  It will be like this for most of the spring.  I believe our chance for the stronger storm systems will be in the next 3 weeks.  Stay weather aware all spring. 

Hurricane season is also on the horizon ..i believe we are in for a treat this season.  Because of the way the boundaries have been flowing lately, i believe if the gulf sees the hurricanes i think they will...Tropical Storm for the TN Valley will be in our future this year.

Severe Weather Safety

Why Worry About Thunderstorms? 

Lightning...

■ Causes an average of 55-60 fatalities and 400 injuries each year

■ Occurs with all thunderstorms

■ Costs more than $1 billion in insured losses each year

Tornadoes...

■ Cause an average of 60-65 fatalities and 1,500 injuries each year

■ Can produce wind speeds in excess of 200 mph

■ Can be 1 mile wide and stay on the ground over 50 miles

Straight-line Winds...

■ Can exceed 125 mph

■ Can cause destruction equal to a tornado

■ Are extremely dangerous to aviation

Flash Floods and Floods...

■ Are the #1 cause of deaths associated with thunderstorms, more

than 90 fatalities each year Hail...

■ Can be larger than a softball (5 inches in diameter)

■ Causes more than $1 billion in crop and property damage each year

Tornado Fiction and Fact

FICTION: Lakes, rivers, and mountains protect areas from tornadoes.

FACT: No geographic location is safe from tornadoes. A tornado near Yellowstone National Park left a path of destruction up and down a 10,000 foot mountain.

FICTION: A tornado causes buildings to “explode” as the tornado passes overhead.

FACT: Violent winds and debris slamming into buildings cause the most structural damage.

FICTION:  Open windows before a tornado approaches to equalize pressure and minimize damage.

FACT: Virtually all buildings leak. Leave the windows closed. Take shelter immediately. An underground shelter, basement or safe room are the safest places. If none of those options are available, go to a windowless interior room or hallway.

FICTION: Highway overpasses provide safe shelter from tornadoes.

FACT: The area under a highway overpass is very dangerous in a tornado. If you are in a vehicle, you should immediately seek shelter in a sturdy building. As a last resort, you can either: stay in the car with the seat belt on. Put your head down below the windows, covering with your hands and a blanket if possible, OR if you can safely get noticeably lower than the level of the roadway, exit your car and lie in that area, covering your head with your hands. Your choice should be driven by your specific circumstances.

FICTION: It is safe to take shelter in the bathroom, hallway, or closet of a mobile home.

FACT: Mobile homes are not safe during tornadoes! Abandon your mobile home to seek shelter in a sturdy building immediately. If you live in a mobile home, ensure you have a plan in place that identifies the closest sturdy buildings.

Here is a good link to the NWS storm safety booklet.  Please, read, save, and print for your safety in this severe weather season.

NWS Severe Weather.pdf

If you have any questions please feel free to ask...

Stay Tuned...

Laura

NEW REDNECK 7 DAY

The next two days are gonna be cold and wet.  Get out the rain boots and head to the mud hole!!  Today we will deal with a few passing showers throughout the morning and afternoon hours.  We will only reach around 58 today with a low tonight of around 45. We could have sustained winds at around 25-20mph.  Stronger rain showers will start to move in tonight.

Thursday we will be 100% wet all day as another front comes through the valley with winds at around 15-20 mph.  Temps will remain in the mid 50’s at around 54 for your high with a low Thursday night of 44. 

Friday morning the rain should end around 3 or 4am and the temps will quickly jump right back up to the mid 60’s with a party sunny sky.  Great day for Muddn.  A low Friday night at around 42 will make it chilly but very much worth a camping trip to wake up to Saturday’s sun and temps.

Saturday the sun will be shining and the temps will remain around 75 for most of the day, with a low Saturday night of around 51.

Sunday looks to be another purdy day, with the sun shinning and highs around 77.  A great day for fishing!  Lows Sunday night will be around the mid 50’s.

Monday and Tuesday look about the same with highs in the mid to upper 70’s and lows in the mid to upper 50’s.  Tuesday we may actually hit 80, but im keeping 78 as my 7 day high for now.

Also, remembering today in history.  Today is the anniversary of the 1974 super Outbreak of Tornadoes in AL and TN.  This outbreak had a devastating effect on the Huntsville Area.  Here is some info concerning this outbreak in AL and TN via Samantha Smith of WAAY channel 31.

Stay tuned….

Laura

Facebook Weather Update...

( Also posted on my Facebook Page at http://www.facebook.com/LaurasForecast )

First let me start off by saying Sorry for my absents in the last few weeks.  Life throws a few curve balls here and there, makes it hard for me to find time for my followers.

Monday
The rain will start around 3am in the TNN Valley.  Heavy showers arriving around 9am throughout the valley with heavier storms closer to the afternoon hours.  The Tornado, and hail threat is really low for these storms, but the wind will give us gusts from 40-60 MPH at times.  From the NWS, Call to action for storm spotters might be activated tomorrow morning.  The temps will be in the 70's as the system moves through and dropping to around 45 by the evening hours.  If the weather turns severe i will have updates as often as possible.

Tuesday
A little dryer and much cooler.  High 59 and low 39.

Wednesday
Partly cloudy with a high of 58 and low of 43.

Thursday - Sunday
This is where the forecast gets tricky again.  The one thing i know for sure is that Thursday will be the start of some yucky and cold days into the weekend.  Local forecasters are all over the board with predictions for Thursday-Sunday.  From my studies today...i believe we will start the day on Thursday with some fairly decent temps around 60 and as some west wind sets into the valley again Thursday night we will see another huge drop in temps.  Friday a front will start to push through the valley with a Upper Level disturbance as well. (take what im about to say with a grain of salt)  The NWS in Huntsville has had on their daily discussion agenda for the past two days, if things line up right with this disturbance, we could see a high impact winter event.  Timing is really up in the air, but if this does in fact happen like the discussions suggest, this will be one of those pop up March winter storms we have that has brought record breaking snow fall to the valley in the past.  If things change and the warmer air stays in place for us, we could have at least three days of soaking rain.  I honestly don't know what to tell you concerning the temps for Friday into Sunday because it could go either way.  We are, like always this time of year, right on the line.  Either way, i will do my best to keep you better posted this week.

Ok, i AGAIN ask a favor i have been asking now for weeks.  I want everyone that reads this update to submit one question to me about severe weather in the TNN Valley.  If you want to be anonymous please Facebook private message me your question, otherwise you can submit your question as a comment on this post on my Facebook page.  I have asked this now several times, and haven't gotten one question.  Is anyone reading my updates?  LOL  I have tried to get together my predictions for the next three months with a section asking your questions concerning spring weather in the valley.  I can't finish my blog without some feedback.  Please help me out.  Also I still need 4 more likes on my FB page to unlock the advance features.  Please tell your brother, sister, ex, kids, someone to like my page.  In turn i will try to give yall more of my time in the up coming days.  Thanks Yall!!

Don't worry too much, that camping and fishing weather is right around the corner.

Stay Tuned...

Laura

HELL NO, WE WON'T GO, HELL NO, WE WON'T GO.

The chant of old man winter  "HELL NO I WON'T GO" as spring is trying to push it out of the valley.  He's putting up one hell of a fight though.  The number one rule of Alabama weather..."Don't rule anything out!"  Old man winter wants to give us a few more chances of snow before it completely disappears.

A cold air mass will begin to settle into the Southeast on Friday, and it will last through the weekend. Temperatures are expected to dip below freezing this weekend as far south as northern Florida. Freeze Warnings are in effect for much of Georgia through Friday morning, and additional Freeze Warnings are possible in this region as the weekend progresses.
~NOAA via weather.gov~

Although i will be updating Facebook before winter is completely gone, i believe this will be my last blog post concerning the 2012-2013 Winter Outlook.  Read below my thoughts on the next few days, my redneck 7 day, and my spring weather predictions.  Full Spring outlook blog coming soon!!

Redneck 7 day, with explanations below.
***PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT THESE ARE JUST MY OPINIONS AND PREDICTIONS...THE FORECAST FOR SNOW THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK IS ALL OVER THE BOARD, SOME SAY YES, SOME SAY NO, AND SOME SAY MAYBE...WE WILL SEE***

Thursday Night
Well tonight is almost over, i know, but I had to watch all the local 10pm news cast before i published this blog.  Wanted to make sure I got everyone's opinion before I gave yall mine.  Tonight is gonna be purdy cold, but with the cloud cover right now, i'm thinking that we won't get down below freezing like my 7 day says.  I believe the low will be around 36 tonight.  With a cold North wind at 9-11 MPH it will feel like 30.

Friday
Early Friday morning we might start out with a few flurries around, then by around 7am it will turn to all rain.  Not rain everywhere, but rain showers here and there.  As the cold north wind starts to pick up again and the temps start to drop around 4pm we will see the rain change over to all snow by dark. No accumulations.

Friday Night
Scattered snow showers and COLD north wind at about 10-15 MPH, we could see a light dusting of snow between 10pm and Midnight.

Saturday
Starting around 1am Saturday we will see heavy scattered snow showers.  A Dusting to 1/2 inch expected for most of the TN Valley by noon Saturday.  COLD north wind will cut through you like a knife.  Some lingering snow showers and flurry showers are possible throughout the afternoon and evening hours, but no more accumulations expected.

TAKE A LOOK AT MY BUDDY JASON SIMPSON'S SNOW EXPECTATIONS  FOR THE TN VALLEY. 

 I BACK THESE PREDICTIONS 100%

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL

412 PM CST THU FEB 28 2013

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-011000-

LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE...DECATUR...GUNTERSVILLE...SCOTTSBORO...

FORT PAYNE...CULLMAN...LYNCHBURG...FAYETTEVILLE...WINCHESTER

412 PM CST THU FEB 28 2013

...POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A SYSTEM CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WHILE QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN IN TERMS OF THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION

ACROSS SOUTHERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE FROM LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM A DUSTING TO ABOUT ONE HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHER TOTALS MORE LIKELY IN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOCATIONS ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COULD SEE SNOWFALL TOTALS CLOSER TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES BY SATURDAY MORNING.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM...AND POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.

Sunday
I don't expect any moisture to still be around Sunday, but i do expect the really cold wind to stick around throughout the morning hours and will only let the temps get to the 40's.  Stay warm out there.

Monday
A break from the moisture on Monday, the south winds will begin to enter the valley again and dry the air up a little, we will still be below average in temps, but not as cold as the weekend.  Cloudy and maybe a few peaks of sun, but not really.

Tuesday
Tuesday as the gulf moisture begins to arrive again we will see scattered rain showers all day on and off.  Going into Tuesday night the showers will get heavier as another upper level disturbance starts to combine with the gulf moisture.  Cold air will start to take over around midnight and possibly turn the rain to sleet.

Wednesday
Here is where it gets tricky again.  I believe by early Wednesday morning all moisture will be sleet mixing with snow and then all snow by the late morning hours.  This is still up in the air, but even some national forecasters are calling for a big snow event for the TN Valley and Atlanta area.  My opinion just based on the model data i see tonight...good chance for a few inches with this system as we will  have the gulf moisture in place to really feed the system.  This will most likely be our last hooray for old man winter. 

PLEASE CLICK ON THE LINKS BELOW AND TAKE A LOOK AT A FEW DIFFERENT OPINIONS CONCERNING THE SNOW FOR THIS WEEKEND.  THANKS TO ALL THE LOCAL GUYS FOR LETTING ME LINK YOUR BLOGS ON HERE.
Jason Simpson Flurrying on Friday
Ari Sarsalari Cold Weekend with Some Snow
Jeff Castle Saturday Snow Update
J.P. Dice, Birmingham News Weekend Snow Watch


Spring fever!!!
Thursday we will gradually start to see normal March temps come back to the valley.  It is going to be an absolutely gorgeous day Thursday.  The next few days may follow suit, with only some slight rain chances for the weekend, but wonderful temps and maybe even some 60's by Saturday.  We might have one more chance for below average temps around the 17th or so, but right now its not looking likely.  Spring is going to pop right over us for the remaining of the month of march.  I will be doing a Spring 2013 outlook blog sometime in the next week, so keep an eye out.   

As I say goodbye to Old Man Winter, I want to thank all of my readers and supporters for sticking by me as I learn the hardest things I've ever had to learn.  If your thinking of becoming a weather professional, don't start learning during a winter season in AL, it is impossible to get anything right.  I know my long range winter predictions were way off, but as was most of the professionals.  I wished we would of had just one good 3-6 inches of snow on the ground for a few days...but hey you can't get everything you wish for.  Number one rule of weather in Alabama....anything can happen!!!  Spring looks to be filled with lots of moisture, but there are some really good camping days ahead.  The first Redneck Camping weekend looks to be March 22nd, where I'm hoping temps will be around 69 and lows around 50.  Perfect camping weather.  See you in Spring for my camping forecast!!!


Stay tuned...
Laura

REDNECK 7 DAY 2.25.13

NEW REDNECK 7 DAY. 

Monday we will have some really gusty winds throughout the day.  WIND ADVISORY for the majority of the TN Valley until 6AM Tuesday.  Some scattered showers possible throughout the day.  Heavy rain will be widespread throughout the valley by the evening hours.  Rain should be gone by mid day on Tuesday.  I will be hourly updating FB if the weather turns severe, but nothing severe expected at this time.  We still have some snow chances for Thursday, but better snow chances for the weekend (not on the 7 day yet)  and a couple of chances the first week of March.  The cold temps are going to stick around for a while after mid week, so don't expect spring anytime soon.  I will update the blog concerning our snow chances within the next two days. 

Remember to click on this link... Laura's Forecast ...which will take you to Laura's Forecast on Facebook.  Please like my page.  I need 4 more likes to get the advance features on my page.  Plus I give more updates on FB than i do the blog.

Stay tuned...
Laura

YES, NO, MAYBE SO...HELL I DON'T KNOW!!

"Disclaimer...i don't claim to be a real weather professional, i don't claim to be right either.  These are my feelings and predictions based on a combination of the local, national, and other forecasters and my experience as a
 Alabama Redneck Weather Nerd."

IS WINTER OVER???

THIS TIME LAST WEEK, I WOULD OF ANSWERED THAT QUESTION LIKE THIS

"Spring starts the first week of March"  

NOW WITH NEW MODEL DATA AND EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF SNOW FALL IN THE CENTRAL U.S.  HERE IS MY NEW ANSWER 

"Spring starts the end of March or beginning of April, more winter on the way"

Yes that's right, i said it...more winter is on the way.  The way things are looking right now, i believe the worst of winter just might be around the corner for us. But like always, and as this blog post title says...nothing is for sure, and future predictions are changing every day.  I have predicted several rounds of wintery precip in the past two months, with much disappointment it would change as time grew closer.  I admit my predictions have been off somewhat...but every time I've predicted snow...we did get it...just not as much as long range predictions and models told me.  So at the risk of being wrong again...i'm gonna give you more predictions concerning the future.  Read through this post to get my short range and long range predictions for the next few weeks.

REDNECK 7 DAY
First let me give you my predictions for the next 7 days...i will explain in more detail after this picture...

FRIDAY
Friday starts off on the wet side, with a few early morning thunderstorms possible as the mositure exits the valley.  Some models actually suggest a few lingering showers developing around the noon hour, but no heavy rain expected aftter around 10am.  Highs around 60 with a low Friday night of 40.
SATURDAY
All the rain from Friday makes for a good mudding day on Saturday.  If we have a few lingering showers develop Friday around the noon hour, a few of those showers might develop Saturday morning, but only a 10% chance of this happening.  The High will be around 59/60 with a low Saturday night of 35.
SUNDAY
Sunday is looking like is gonna be a pretty day.  Perfect temps between 60/61 in the afternoon for some early season fishing.  Plenty of sun in the sky and a low Sunday night of only 41.  Rain might start to develop Sunday night into Monday, but for now it looks like it will wait till Monday.
MONDAY
You won't be able to escape the wet weather Monday around lunch time.  I believe we might even see some strong to severe thunderstorms out of this system, but its too early to tell.  A cold mass of air will make its way to us Monday night bringing the temps from low 60's down to the mid-low 30's.  As this happens the warmer air will come up from the gulf early Monday bringing in the moisture and possible storms.  Please stay weather aware on Monday.
TUESDAY
Tuesday will be a partly cloudy day with some lingering moisture from the night before.  A slight north wind will make it feel colder than it is.  Highs around 52 with Tuesday night pretty and clear around 32.
WEDNESDAY
Wednesday will start off clear and sunny but with more of a north wind making it much colder.  The high will be only around 50 as a cold air mass makes it all the way to south Alabama.  Wednesday night the temps will drop to around 29 as a possible round of moisture will start to develop to our west bringing in rain before it changes over to all winter pricip by Thursday morning. 
THURSDAY
Thursday is up in the air.  The ECM model and GFS models are showing a lot of moisture developing to our west as the cold air reaches south AL.  The only thing I'm watching is the pressure in the air and whether or not the lower air will be cold enough for winter pricip.  If the cold air sets up right, we could see a good few inches of snow by thursday evening.  If the air changes (like it has in the past few weeks) then we could see only a few good rounds of flurries. I'm not expecting the high Thursday to get past 40, but we could very well remain around the freezing mark all day.  Only time will tell.  Here are some future prediction model images for Thursday.  More long range predictions will follow these images...

IGNORE THE DATES IN THE FOLLOWING TWO PICS, SHOULD SAY FEB 28TH.

Keep this in mind...
The ECM has been right 90% of the time 3 days in advance and right 75% of the time up to 5 days in advance.  The GFS has been right 80% of the time 3 days in advance and right 49% of the time up to 5 days in advance.  This is 7 days in advance and these models usually don't agree this far out.  Something to think about.

As i tell you many many times, none of this is easy to predict.  These models change every day.  But as Grandma says.... "It always snows on the butter cups".  Anything is possible.

Beyond the 7 day
As you may have noticed, the plains and the northeast have been blasted with snow the last month.  Long range predictions from late fall 2012 might actually become true.  I was so disappointed as this winter started...everyone...I mean every major government or network forecaster and scientist predicted a really cold and very snowy winter for us during late Dec, Jan, and Feb.  We did spend a few below average cold days in January.  A really good upper level low dumped some good snow throughout some of the valley.  But nothing big like i expected.  Now I believe we just might see our really cold really snowy winter to close out this season.

Plenty of precip is on the way for the next 10-14 days.  The Jetstream has aligned just perfectly.  A type of blocking effect has begain to form in the north east and north west causing a huge mass of cold air to dip down over us...to stay for a while.  Take a look at the new NOAA 14 day outlook for above vs below average temps.

The TN Valley is in the 80% shaded dark blue area saying we will have below average temps in the next 14 days.  If the moisture stays and the temps stay cool, we just might see that late snow ivent.

Click on the link below to read this good article arguing with my predictions by Jason Simpson of WHNT.
Rumors of Winter Storms

SPRING???

Although i believe the next 14 days to be below normal temps and above normal precip...i believe we will skip right into the good ole Tornado Season of Alabama...Spring!!  By the end of March, 3rd-4th week, we will see spring like conditions and spring like storms.  But before then we will see a few more ups and downs in the temp department that last for more than 2 days at a time.  Above average moisture, and above average north wind.  We still have a few more weeks of winter to go.  We have several possibility's for good systems for snow, good systems for severe storms, and good systems for damaging wind to pull threw over the next 30 days.  A very active weather patter ahead to slide us right into spring.  I want a good snow but can't wait to give yall my first camping forecast...those days are coming...don't worry. 

PLEASE READ THE UPDATES I PUT ON FACEBOOK CONCERNING THESE LONG RANGE PREDICTIONS.  PLEASE READ THE BLOG ABOVE BY JASON SIMPSON FOR A DIFFERENT OPINION.  ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!

STAY TUNED.....

LAURA

COLD, HOT, COLD, HOT...MOTHER NATURE MENOPAUSE

It looks like the worst of winter is still on its way and very possible in the next few weeks, however some days you will think its spring and others will feel very much like winter as mother nature has a month of menopause.  In other words, models are pointing to more winter precip in the coming days, but also pointing to ups and downs as far as temperature throughout most of the February month.  Moisture, Sun, Snow, Warm, Cold, and Freezing days are ahead of us for our last month of the meteorological winter.  Read through as I explain my predictions for the next week and through the end of February.....

TONIGHT
Tonight into the morning hours we have a possibility of seeing some freezing drizzle in the area as a cold front moves through the valley.  Right now temps are holding strong in the mid 40's and low 50's but as we go through the night they will begin to drop to the freezing mark.  By 7am tomorrow morning temps will be around 30 for an average.  If any moisture comes in over night, it will most likely be frozen, but no problems expected.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY

Check out NOAA's forecast for the next few days....

 

I don't agree completely with the temps and precip chances above, as i believe Thursday is defiantly going to be a cold one with highs in the mid 30's across the valley.  I would be surprised if anyone reaches 39 Thursday.  By 7pm Thursday night the average temp will be 26 around the valley, which brings the concern for frozen precip Thursday night into Friday morning.  Around 11:30 Thursday night a bit of moisture from the south west will begin to push through the valley.  Scattered showers possible along the western parts of the valley and by 3am frozen rain and/or sleet is going to become possible starting in the west of the valley and slowly moving across to the east.  Between 3am and 11am Friday most parts of the valley will see a few hours of freezing rain before the moisture moves out.  Temps by 6am Friday will only be in the 30's around the valley and only warming up to around 32 by the noon hours.  The wind will be NE at 5-15mph...a very very cold wind.  A winter storm watch has been issued for north western parts of GA and south eastern parts of TN.  We shouldn't have any travel issues, but anything is possible with this arctic air mass.

My pinpoint predictions indicate where i think most of the heaviest mositure will be from 9am to noon Friday.

The NAM model for Friday at noon shows a little less than I'm predicting.  Recent model trends and patterns show a slight under forecasting.  Which means the below model is a little light compared to what it is actually going to be at that time.  Once again, as we have learned, arctic air mass is very hard to predict on forecast guidance models.

There is a slight possibility of some ice glaceing around the valley Friday, but nothing major expected.  Doppler Dale shows his expected accumulations below...

THE WEEKEND
Friday night temps will remain in the upper 20's for lows as the cold air sticks around into Saturday.  Saturday highs are not expected to get above 39 but very Sunny.  With the moisture from Friday, i just might have to take my truck to the mud fields for some fun in the sun.  As we go into Sunday morning the low is going to be around 32.  We will quickly see a slight warm up as a warm front moves through the valley Sunday afternoon.  High for Sunday expected to be around 47 with a mostly cloudy sky and a slight chance of a shower or two into the evening hours.  Nothing major expected at this time, but as wee go through the next 48 hours watching the arctic air mass, things might change for the weekend...i will keep you posted if they do.

NEXT WEEK
I believe Monday and Tuesday will be mostly dry with a slight chance of a shower Tuesday evening.  The temps will be in the upper 30's at night and mid 50's during the day.  As a warm front moves through Tuesday evening we could actually see temps in the low 60's. (mother nature menopause)  Wednesday the chance for rain and possible thunderstorms increases as we warm up to the mid 60's and another cold front moves through late Wednesday night into Thursday.  Thursday i suspect a round of strong thunderstorms in the morning as the cold front moves through the valley.  I'm also watching another major chance of winter weather Thursday night into Friday morning of next week.  Check out the below GFS model guidance for Thursday at 6pm.

You see the bold black circle above...everything within that circle is above the thickness line and on the north side of the cold air....everything circled is frozen precip.  This has raised a concern for some local forecasters and me as well.  I suspect this might just be and ice/snow storm with thunder snow possible.  I will be keeping an eye on this throughout the weekend and early next week.  I will give you more updates as i get them.

FEBRUARY
The long range models are showing a definite trend towards more below average days in February.   We will however deal with mother natures menopause once again through the month, but with more colder days than we saw in January.

As we go through the first two weeks of Feruary I'm seeing more moisture opertunities and more winter weather.  I will be keeping a close eye on the long range models to keep you updated.  However there is some good news in our future....I believe spring will show its head to us as early as the first few days of March.  We just need to hang in there through this awful cold month we have ahead.

I will be giving you more updates on my Facebook page  Laura's Forecast throughout the next few days concerning the Friday's threat of ice and next weeks threat of storms and snow. 

Stay tuned......
Laura

DON'T PANIC!!...ITS JUST WINTER!

Don't panic everyone, i know we haven't been used to these temps and winter weather, but get used to it.  Looks like old man winter is going to stay around for a while.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY and FLOOD WARNINGS

A winter weather advisory is in effect for parts of the TN Valley.  Ice is beginning to form on trees and metallic surfaces all over the western part of the valley.  The good news is that the rain is starting to weaken a bit as the temps are remaining just above or around freezing.  There is a low boundary of arctic air right above the surface which is causing the ice to form.  This is the reason for the winter weather advisory.  With this low boundary of really cold air, it causes the falling rain to freeze right at the surface.  The only problems i see with this ice is the possibility of some minor power outages because of ice on lines, and the issue of black ice.  There have been a few power outages in the area, but nothing serious.  Ice has been reported on some bridges and roads in the west but as long as you are careful and pay attention to what your doing when driving, you shouldn't have major travel issues.  Just be careful out there and stay calm.  One of the major problems with forecasting winter weather in the TN Valley is that people panic and cause accidents.  Don't panic, there is no need to run out for milk and bread, we aren't gonna get snowed in.  Just be cautious.  Any threat of Ice tonight, will be gone tomorrow by 9am.  Check out this map of counties including the advisory from WAFF.
Flooding is more of an issue in the TN Valley today.  The paint rock river and flint river are already covering some roads and making them  not passable.  Rain will continue for the next few days, which is a concern of mine.  Please be extra careful traveling around any type of creeks or rivers.  Also some flooding could occur around drainage ditches and street gutters.  So please be careful and DO not try to pass water covered roads unless absolutely necessary. 

Rain will continue on and off Tonight, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Early morning Thursday.  Temps will remain around the low to mid 40's for highs and mid 30's for lows.

SNOW THURSDAY??? 

Yes this is a possibility.  I have read numerous blogs today by our local forecasters where the word "accumulations" were mentioned.  As you know, none of them have put this in the forecast yet, as they are waiting to see if the models remain constant enough going into the rest of the week.  As you know I have been watching the potential for this snow system to develop over the last few days, here are my thoughts on the subject...
A upper-level low could form right to our south west Wednesday into Thursday. The track and timing of this upper low is very critical.  If it moves directly overhead, which is what the models are showing right now, dynamic cooling could cause wintry precipitation in the form of snow even if the temperatures are above freezing.  Models are hinting at a couple of inches of wet snow accumulations.  I believe this is very much possible Thursday afternoon.  But once again, it is really too far out to but this on any forecast.  Cold air masses and upper lows are very hard to predict more than 2-3 days in advance, as the models sometimes miss read these.  I will be watching it more closely the next few days and let you know if this is in fact going to happen. The details will become clearer over the next 24-36 hours as I see if the models maintain consistency.  Despite this upper level low concern, we should remain constiant with mid to high 40 temps and lows in the 30's going into the weekend.

Check out the NAM guidance future predictions.  This is a categorial model which is made up of other models different factors that produce falling moisture.  They have changed a little in the last few hours but not by much.  It all depends on the upper level low and how far east and south it will strengthen. 

THIS WEEKEND

All signs are pointing to this weekend being the sunniest weekend we have had in a while.  Temperature highs should remain in the upper 40's or low 50's with lows in the 30's.

NEXT WEEK

I am still following the cold air mass i was talking about in my last blog.  Some days next week we might not even get out of the 30's.  The next few days are critical when it comes to watching this cold air mass.  If we get too cold next week, we will be completely dry.  If we stay just at freezing (which is what models are pointing to now) then we will see lots of moisture with are greatest possibility of snow so far.  I will also be watching next week and keep you posted as I see updates in the models.

Stay tuned...
Laura

THE RAIN BRINGS WINTER BACK

Good ole mother nature fooled us again as Huntsville broke the record high today of 71 reaching 72 in the metro area.  Hot and mugging all day but no its not spring time and yes here comes the winter again.

Sunday-Tuesday...

This season has been one of the hardest in weather history to predict, but the next few days are pretty easy to predict for any meteorologist or forecaster.  Rain and more rain.  The gulf moisture coming up from the south and cold front coming from the west will collide and thicken the air bringing a crap load of rain to the valley in the next few days.  Really heavy rainfall is expected from Sunday through Tuesday.  A few strong storms capable of gusty winds are also possible.  But the main threat for the next few days will be very heavy rainfall and flooding.  To all my friends and family around the Flint, river flooding is also possible in the next few days, so be prepared.  Rainfall totals in the area are expected to reach 3-5 inches by the time the rain is gone Tuesday evening.  As the cold front starts to move through tomorrow temps will be in the mid-high 60's and fall to the mid-high 30's by early Monday morning.  Temps are expected to stay above the freezing mark, but could change and there for some frozen precip might be possible Monday into Tuesday, but only a 14% probability of the temps dropping below freezing.  The highs for Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid to low 40's.  BACK TO WINTER!!

UPDATE:  As I'm writing this blog I double checked the forecast guidance system and it now appears that the rain may stick around through Wednesday.  Instead of re-writing the above paragraph i decided just to update you with the current model image below.  This is the GFS prediction for Wed mid day.  As you can see, the rain is still around.

Wednesday and beyond....

Now for the more tricky forecasting.  A week ago i would of told you that we would be into the teens by mid week this week, but now its looking that we won't get that cold just yet.  Over the next few weeks I expect for us to see a lot of old man winter.  Plenty of moisture coming up from the gulf with the arctic jet stream settling right over our heads.  A combination that means WINTER.   After Wed I belive we will have a break in the moisture for a few days, but will quickly return by the weekend.  We should have nothing but average winter temps from Wed through Sunday.  Highs in the mid to high 40's and lows in the mid to high 30's.  After next Sunday is when the true test of forecasting comes in to play.  The long range models are all showing one thing in common...cold air.  Take a look at the image below....

I know you don't really understand what the model image above means...let me explain it simple...  The black line that's coming from the north west and Canada and makes its way down to the southeast then back up to the northeast...well that's the Arctic air boundary.  As you see, i circled our area on the map, clearly showing the arctic air as far south as Montgomery.  Keep in mind that these are high altitude temps and the map is showing 14 degrees right over the TN valley for Tuesday the 22nd.  No, don't worry, it won't get that cold at ground level, this is what the temps will look like in the clouds.  Which from my understanding means our highs will be in the mid 30's on the ground.  No matter who you are, that is some really freaking cold temps.  And looking even further ahead on this model, it shows this arctic jet stream will stick around just like this through the beginning of Feb.  I'm not even going to attempt to forecast the moisture this far out, as it is nearly impossible to do with the arctic air.  But with what other short term models are showing me, we will have no shortage of moisture for the next two weeks.  Temps in the 30's and plentiful moisture, means one thing....SNOW.  Yes i said the S word again.  I know y'all are tired of me saying this word, but you just don't know how many snow events have come so close to us in the past month.  Once again, its all about the timing, and i honestly believe the timing is going to fall right into place for us very soon.  So many things are lining up just perfect for us to have a great snow event in the next few weeks.  Now, please keep in mind, no local meteorologist will even mention the word snow unless it is on the short term forecast models.  Weather professionals in our area don't like to forecast for snow without being absolutely sure its going to happen.  There is two much panic in our area to even think of the word snow without all the milk and bread being gone within the hour in every grocery store...that's Alabamians for you.  :-)  But rest assured...i surely don't mind mentioning any thought of snow.  I will be watching the short term models over the next few days to see if any moisture develops over us at the same time as the arctic air. 

To sum things up...  My long term predictions for the next few weeks are very simple...cold air, and lots of moisture.  We are defiantly going to see a lot of Winter for the rest of the month.  Stock up on your firewood and be prepared to turn those heaters back on.  I am watching a system on the short range models for next weekend, i will keep you posted...Time for winter again....stay tuned....

Laura

HAPPY RAINY NEW YEAR!!!!

HAPPY 2013!!

Rain will continue throughout the first day of the new year.  Here is a current image of rain over the TN Valley...

Temps will stay around the upper 40's and maybe even brake into the lower 50's today.  Good day to clean up all those inside Christmas decorations and put up the tree.  The rain will start to move out of our area tonight, with a few possible lingering rain showers in the early morning.

THE REST OF THE WEEK

The system I've been watching on the NAM guidance system for the past week, has completed changed and will NOT effect the valley like previously forecast.   The northern boundary I was talking about, which would of made the system stall over us to bring plentiful snow, is now predicted to move more southward, causing a block to the moisture.  Some rain for southern AL is expected WED-THURS, but nothing for us.  This system was coming together perfectly for snow for us, like a great game of chess, the pieces were all aligned, then boom, one piece moved and the whole forecast changes.  Like I've been saying all along...TIMING is everything.  However, any moisture we do see WED-THURS will be in frozen form, maybe a few passing flurries like we have had in the past week, but i'm not forecasting for any moisture at all.

I've also noticed a few more changes in the NAM guidance prediction for the next few days.  We will start to see a calming trend for the remainder of the week.  Some really beautiful sunny days are coming.  The clouds will start to move out of the Valley on Thursday, making way for some cold but gorgeous outside days for the weekend.  New Redneck 7 Day says it all....

I am tracking another possible storm or snow maker to move across the valley the middle of next week, so please get out and enjoy the beautiful weather the rest of this week.  More details to come...stay tuned....

Laura